27.04.2022
REASONABLE MEASURES IN CASE OF HIGH INFLATION
The analysis is from the weekly bulletin of the Institute for Market Economics (IME)
In March, the annual rate of change in prices reached 12.4%. Compared to March 2021, the increase in food prices was by 17.4%, and in fuels and transport in general - by 26.7%. For the month compared to February, the growth was 2.2%, with food prices rising by an average of 3.3% and transport - by 7.9%. Eurostat gives a similar picture in all EU economies - the average growth of the harmonized index of consumer prices per year is 7.8%, for the euro area is 7.4%; the growth of prices for March alone is 2.4%, which is even slightly higher than reported for Bulgaria.
In our country this is the highest inflation since 2008, when we had similar international dynamics of sharply rising fuels and basic agricultural products. In fact, the achieved prices of crude oil and wheat then remain unattainable at the moment. Then in the whole period from August 2007 to October 2008 the annual growth of prices exceeded 10% and reached a maximum value of 15% in May 2008. From the beginning of the global financial crisis until a few months ago, annual inflation in Bulgaria was above 5% in just two months in the spring of 2011 - then also after rising fuel prices.
Naturally, politicians have lost the reflex to propose and discuss economic policies in conditions of relatively high inflation. This applies both to budget planning and to household income and the tax environment. Whether for this reason, or because of the heterogeneous nature of the coalition, only "expectation" for a future package of measures is currently accumulating. It is also unclear how it fits into the stated intention of the government to update the budget in the middle of the year. However, all this does not prevent individual parties and politicians from publicly presenting their ideas for economic and/or social measures in support.
Whatever is done must be based on facts, opportunities and take into account the laws and principles that govern trade and human behavior. In the first place, each measure or package of measures is taken for a specific purpose. If we simplify the political task, it is either a matter of fighting inflation in search of instruments to lower prices (or at least not to rise more), or to alleviate its effects on businesses and households.
What does it mean to fight inflation and is there such an option at all? In a price shock driven by external factors, the possibilities for impact are limited. The decisions of the major central banks on monetary policy are not - and never have been - within the control of the Bulgarian government. To the extent that we can have an academic debate on the effect of quantitative easing and low interest rates, this is ultimately a factor beyond our control. The same is largely (not entirely) the case for fuel prices, electricity and some agricultural commodities - we cannot change the structure of the European energy market, nor can we change our dependence on Gazprom and the behavior of the monopolist; even less depends on us on how long Russia's war with Ukraine will last.
For many politicians, however, it seems to be a symbolic victory, a testament to the heroism of providing citizens with something "cheap" - from electricity and diesel, to oil, bread and, until recently, cucumbers. Can this happen? The price ceiling leads to a deficit, or if we want there to be no shortage - to the need for a direct subsidy for the trader and the manufacturer. Beyond the enormous administrative difficulty of imposing a fixed price on an otherwise free, complex and competitive market, possible subsidies will create extremely dangerous incentives. For buyers and sellers, price will cease to play its informational role, on the contrary - whoever consumes the most of an otherwise increasingly expensive resource will be rewarded the most with taxpayers' money.
Changing indirect taxes will have minimal effect, while the fiscal cost will be high. Reducing excise duties on fuels can undoubtedly lead to lower retail prices, but this decision must be taken collectively within the EU. There are generally two options for influencing prices through a change in value added tax. On the one hand, there may be a lowering of the standard rate. However, we must be aware - each reduction point will mean BGN 800 million less revenue in the budget, which must be compensated either by other taxes or cut costs. Even if we accept - and this is far from the reality - that the whole reduction will go to consumers, with such an expensive measure we support both the needy and the rich, lowering the price of cheese and potatoes, and luxury houses, cars or designer clothes.
If we talk about a general reduction of the tax burden and redistribution through the state, this is undoubtedly a desirable change; however, the potential for controlling inflation seems minimal. The idea of differentiated rates has been discussed many times and the arguments against it remain valid. Purely politically, it is very difficult to give up one branch if such a discount has already been given to another. But even in terms of the immediate effect, the expected results are far from guaranteed - in other countries the consumer manages to receive between ¼ and 1/3 of the tax reduction (for example in Romania and Slovakia, where similar steps have been taken in the recent past). Bulgaria also has its own experience - in the 1990s bread and milk were released and we remember how the market worked and how much consumers benefited from this measure. In other words - we help the margin of the trader and the manufacturer and very little - the end user. This, incidentally, happened after the introduction of a reduced rate for restaurants in 2020 and is even openly acknowledged by the industry itself - prices are not reduced.
This approach faces other problems. Politicians talk with clichés - the strongest and most sustainable in the history of the transition is that of "bread". What exactly is "bread" no one wants to define, even from the industry hesitantly open the word that it may not be practical for all pasta, but only for a particular type. Let's put aside the administrative-control chaos that will accompany the categorization of the various "breads"; however, this will generally be the case for other products if there is a proposal to apply a reduced VAT rate to food groups. Even in the most optimistic market scenario, in which the consumer takes the full tax reduction of 20 to 9 percent, an "average Bulgarian" will receive about 34 stotinki per month because of cheaper oil and approximately 74 stotinki per month from cheaper bread. Clichés help with headlines and front pages, but they don't solve real problems.
Of course, there are also domestic sources of inflation on which policy can have some effect. Housing prices, for example, are highly dependent on the credit expansion of commercial banks, which can be affected. We also have controlled prices, for example in healthcare, education, and in the context of the debate - let's not forget that households are not on the free electricity market and for them the price has not changed since July 2021. Other changes in the business environment may alleviate the costs of small businesses - for example, a higher VAT registration threshold - and have an anti-inflationary effect in the medium term.
In this context, another note is important - the discourse of imported/domestic products is misleading, if there is a distinction, it is between internationally traded goods and non-marketable goods and services. We have, for example, an oversupply of electricity, oil, wheat, metals, plastics and chemicals (the list goes on) – i.e. Bulgaria is a net exporter of these products - this does not mean that prices will be low. For this type of goods the prices are international or at least close - we have a regional, European and even global market. In this sense, whatever measures are proposed to facilitate, encourage or subsidize production, this will not lead to a fall in domestic prices.
That is why it seems reasonable for politicians to reformulate their goal - it is possible to maintain and increase the purchasing power of household income. This is a pragmatic but honest approach, based on the acceptance of the inevitable manifestations of external factors on a small and extremely open economy like ours. How can such a package of measures be structured?
There are several categories of citizens whose incomes depend entirely or to some extent on government regulations. There has been a lot of talk about pensions since the election campaign and we will not stop here, but by July 1 it seems almost certain that there will be an increase - at least to integrate the supplement of BGN 60 in the basic pension, and probably even more . The weak coverage of the monthly social assistance system - there is a proposal to change the law in the direction of expanding the scope and amount of support, but only for 2023 - requires some temporary solution for direct support to the poorest households, which are the most severely affected by higher prices of basic products.
As the new government has also avoided or at least postponed the debate on an objective mechanism for setting the minimum wage, it will now have to adopt (another) ad hoc decision to increase it. With over 12% annual inflation, in fact, the increase to BGN 710 already seems to be lagging behind and purely arithmetically there will be an argument for an increase at least until the loss of purchasing power is compensated. As the very existence of a mandatory minimum wage set by the state contradicts free bargaining and economic principles, in this situation - high inflation and very low unemployment - a change in the nominal amount carries a limited risk of adverse developments in the labor market.
As early as the formation of the coalition, possible changes in public sector wages were generally postponed to the middle of the year. If the government keeps its commitment, analyzes should be made in individual sectors and administrations with proposals to increase efficiency and cost-effectiveness - and this should be the basis for increasing wages, but only after improving efficiency. There are some examples that seem to be in the right direction - for example, the increase in salaries for nurses and other nurses, which in fact is not even directly related to inflation, but is necessitated by structural problems in these professions. So the ministries have a very specific incentive to start changes - if we follow the promise, the change will allow for higher incomes.
Wages in the private sector have been growing steadily in recent years due to a number of long-term labor market factors and demographic trends. We continue to believe that a good solution - as we proposed in the alternative budget of the IME - is a significant reduction in the amount of insurance. This leaves income for workers and "rewards" employers who are out in the open and increase wages. This is a tax reduction that is aimed specifically at the economically active and stimulates growth. The argument for stimulating private investment through zero tax on reinvested earnings seems even stronger - and this year political turmoil and weak capacity will postpone much of the capital expenditures included in the budget, not to mention the delayed implementation of the Plan. for recovery and resilience. Such relief could at least partially offset the economic slowdown due to the effects of the war.
The policy to support income growth should and can happen without worsening the budget balance. On the one hand, higher-than-expected price increases increase budget revenues - directly through consumption taxes, and secondarily through higher nominal profits and incomes. Separately, state-owned energy companies will realize higher-than-expected profits, which may also be available to the fiscal authorities. Let's not forget that for a large part of the products with the fastest growth of prices on the global markets Bulgaria is a net exporter - ie we will have companies with improving financial results, which will also indirectly improve revenue collection.
Data on budget execution until March show an increase in tax and non-tax revenues by 12.2% - higher than planned for the year, which is a logical and expected consequence of inflation. On the other hand, as has been said, it is increasingly certain that capital expenditures will not be realized. The prudent policy is to distribute them transparently in June and in the vote in the parliament on the budget update, instead of making controversial (at least) tricks again in mid-December.
In other words, reasonable and well-targeted measures can be implemented to maintain and increase the purchasing power of households in a way that does not add an internal fiscal stimulus to inflation and does not increase the deficit.
27.04.2022
UNTIL MAY 20, FARMERS APPLY FOR ASSISTANCE FOR COVID DAMAGE
Until May 20, farmers can apply for support for damage caused by the Covid pandemic. Documents will be accepted by the municipal agricultural services. The budget is 143.5 million.
Livestock farmers will receive 79 million from the total budget. The rest of the money is for the producers of fruits, vegetables and oil-bearing roses.
The rates for individual animals and crops are also clear. The largest is the financial aid for beef cows under selection control - for them the farmers will receive BGN 198 per head. The support for the sheep is the least - 21 levs per head.
Beekeepers will receive BGN 13 per bee family. In crop production, the most serious is the aid for the greenhouse production of tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers in heated greenhouses - BGN 12,233 per hectare.
Wine grapes and rice receive the least aid - BGN 200 per hectare.
After the end of the acceptance of applications and distribution of the budget by sectors, in case there is a resource left, it will be redistributed with a coefficient in the respective direction. In case of shortage within the determined resource by sectors, the determined amount will be reduced. The Agriculture Fund has pledged Covid's support to be paid by June 15.
27.04.2022
LEGAL MIGRATION: ATTRACTING SKILLS AND TALENTS TO THE EU
The European Commission is proposing an ambitious and sustainable policy for legal migration. As part of the comprehensive approach to migration set out in the Migration and Asylum Pact, the Commission is proposing legal and operational initiatives that will benefit the EU economy, strengthen cooperation with non-EU countries and improve overall migration management in the long term. The set of proposals also includes concrete actions to facilitate access to the EU labor market for people fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Commission proposes to revise the Single Permit Directive and the Long-Term Residents Directive.
The introduction of a simplified procedure for a single combined work and residence permit will make the process faster and easier for applicants and employers, and the revision of the Long-Term Residents Directive will facilitate the acquisition of long-term residence status in the EU by simplifying the conditions for reception. In order to better match skills and labor market needs, the Commission proposes to strengthen operational cooperation at EU level between Member States as well as with partner countries. Following the launch of the Talent Support Partnerships in June 2021, the Commission is currently proposing a number of steps so that the first partnerships can be agreed by the end of 2022.
The Commission is also proposing to set up the first EU-wide platform and a matching tool, the EU's talent pool, to make the EU more attractive to non-EU nationals looking for opportunities and to help employers find the talent they need. The Commission is exploring possible additional opportunities for legal migration to the EU in the medium and long term, taking into account the potential for focusing on future-oriented policies in three areas of action: care, youth and innovation.
27.04.2022
1 MONTH TO FIND A JOB CANDIDATE
The Covid pandemic has brought about many changes in the labor market and exacerbated challenges that were visible before. A study by the HR solutions leader The Adecco Group, among 550 human resources professionals from all industries, outlines labor market trends in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. The report confirms that rapid societal change is pushing for people with higher adaptability and lifelong learning.
Despite the intercultural differences in these regions, the analysis also finds quite common characteristics:
The channels through which companies look for potential employees are, firstly, vacancy announcement sites, secondly - LinkedIn, and then run their own database, recommendation from current employees and specialized events.
During the interview, HR specialists involved in the selection of employees assess the candidate's behavior and non-verbal communication, rather than whether his biography fully meets the requirements.
It is very important from this first meeting whether the values he demonstrates will be compatible with the company's corporate values.
Then, the soft skills and the hard skills of the candidates are ranked as important. Emotional intelligence, the desire for active learning, analytical thinking and openness to innovation are the most important soft skills sought in candidates. In terms of hard skills, specific knowledge of the employer's industry, data analysis and software development knowledge come to the fore. The expectations for payment are not insignificant, but they are far behind as a weight of the criterion in the assessment of the candidate in relation to the demonstrated behavior and values.
After the initial selection, an average of 5 candidates were interviewed for one position.
This number varies considerably depending on the industry, the number of applicants and their level of experience. For example, some positions have a longer and more complex selection process, so the number of interviewed candidates may be higher. This is especially true for managerial positions or certain roles that combine more complex responsibilities or have to perform several positions.
The average time to find the right candidate for a position is 1 month.
This is stated by nearly 1/3 of the surveyed HR specialists. However, this is not the case for Bulgaria and Slovenia, where due to the more limited labor market, this process takes more than 1 month. The length of the period may vary depending on the company's procedures, the complexity of the open positions and the compensation and compensation package.
Detailed announcements and pre-announced details such as requirements for specific skills and abilities, training opportunities, clearly defined goals and responsibilities will also lead to more suitable candidates and reduce the time required to fill this position.
27.04.2022
THE EC HAS APPROVED A ROMANIAN SCHEME TO SUPPORT LIVESTOCK FARMERS WORTH 453M LEI
The European Commission yesterday approved a Romanian scheme worth 91m euros (453m Romanian lei) to help cattle, pigs and poultry farmers in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, the European Commission said in a statement.
The scheme is approved under the Temporary Framework for State Aid. According to the scheme, the aid will take the form of direct grants. The measure aims to address the liquidity problems facing farmers and to compensate for some of the losses suffered due to the coronavirus pandemic and the restrictive measures the Romanian authorities had to put in place to limit the spread of the virus. The scheme will be open to all companies operating in the cattle, pig and poultry sectors.
Last week, Agriculture Minister Adrian Kesnoyu announced that more than 95,000 farmers would benefit from financial aid of about 454m lei to make up for some of the losses they have reported over the past two years due to sanitary restrictions and chain breaches for deliveries.
"We support livestock farmers by providing state aid to compensate for some of the losses that farmers have suffered in the last two years due to sanitary restrictions and supply chain disruptions. With the provision of this aid worth nearly 454 million lei, in addition to others programs to support the livestock sector, we offer farmers the help they need to operate under normal conditions," said Kesnoyu, according to a press release from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
A government ordinance setting up a state aid scheme to support cattle, pig and poultry farmers in the context of the economic crisis caused by the covid pandemic was passed by the government last Thursday. The maximum total value of the state aid scheme is 453.899 million lei and is distributed as follows: 170.250 million lei for the cattle sector, 167.649 million lei for the pig sector and 116 million lei for the poultry sector.
The payment of state aid must be made by June 30, 2022.
26.04.2022
MORE MONEY FOR RENOVATION OF HOUSES FOR AFFORDABLE ENVIRONMENT
More money for affordable housing and personal mobility of people with disabilities. Due to the great interest, the budget of the state program has been increased by BGN 500,000, and the deadline for project approval is shorter.
This year's campaign for applying for the program for people with disabilities starts today and will last until July 27.
The program provides up to BGN 8,000 for personal mobility and up to BGN 100,000 for accessible housing. Approved projects must be completed by the end of the year.
Component 1 of the program will finance projects for accessible living environment through the construction and installation of ramps, lifting platforms and elevators that facilitate the movement of people with disabilities. The program will allocate up to BGN 100,000 for each approved project proposal. In cases where their value is higher, applicants will be able to co-finance the implementation of eligible activities.
Owners of homes with permanent disabilities who move in wheelchairs with a permanent or current address in the same building can apply for the program. Admissible candidates are also associations of condominium owners in multi-family residential buildings, in which there are people with permanent disabilities, moving in wheelchairs, with a permanent or current address in the same building.
The approved projects under the Personal Mobility component will be financed with up to BGN 8,000. The funds will be allocated for the reconstruction of a car for a person with permanent disabilities and the installation of an auxiliary facility for loading and unloading a wheelchair. For the first time, the program will finance the purchase of a car adapted for drivers with permanent disabilities. Applicants will also be able to receive funding for a driving course.
The right to apply for the Personal Mobility Component belongs to people with permanent disabilities, with a proven deficiency of the lower and / or upper limbs and a decision of the medical examination bodies, which have a document that they are physically fit to be drivers.
The total budget of the National Program for Accessible Housing and Personal Mobility for 2022 is BGN 2.5 million. The funds have increased by BGN 500,000 compared to last year.
Detailed information on the conditions and documents for application for both components can be found on the website of the MLSP (www.mlsp.government.bg section "Policies", category "People with Disabilities", section: "National Program for Accessible Housing" and personal mobility”) or at the following link https://www.mlsp.government.bg/natsionalna-programa-za-dostpna-zhilishchna-sreda-i-lichna-mobilnost-1
26.04.2022
BSMEPA ORGANIZED A DELEGATION OF BULGARIAN COMPANIES TO PARTICIPATE IN A BUSINESS FORUM IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
The Executive Agency for Promotion of Small and Medium Enterprises (BSMEPA) has formed a business delegation with representatives of employers' organizations and business companies from various sectors, which will accompany the President of the Republic of Bulgaria Rumen Radev during his upcoming official visit to the Czech Republic from 9 to 11 May 2022, reported by the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA). During the visit, it was agreed to hold a business forum with bilateral meetings between the business circles of the two countries.
The business delegation will include Bulgarian companies from the sectors of mechanical engineering, mechatronics, electronics and electrical engineering, automotive, ICT, high technology, smart agriculture, perfumery and cosmetics, food and wine industry, textiles, green technologies and tourism.
Those wishing to join the business delegation Bulgarian companies need to register here and their representatives to present a copy of ID card/passport no later than April 28, 2022 to the email address s.zapryanova@sme.government.bg.
26.04.2022
HOW TO ORGANIZE A JOB SEARCH - A USEFUL GUIDE
Keep track of your progress
You need to monitor your progress so that you can communicate and track effectively. Organizing all the information about your application in one place will help you a lot.
Keep a copy of each job advertisement you have applied for. Save a copy of the resume you used with the ad, as well as relevant contact information. Here are some ideas on how you can keep this information available:
If you keep your information organized, tracking will be very easy. You will have all the necessary information at your fingertips!
Manage your time, create a schedule and make checklists
Effective job search must be like a working day. Make a schedule and stick to it by setting goals.
For example, set aside three hours a day for your search. Or apply for at least 15 jobs a week. Setting goals will help you stick to an effective strategy. It will also help you maintain self-discipline.
Once you've created a long-term strategy, focus on today. What are the most important things you need to do today to get closer to your goal of finding a new job?
A great way to organize your daily job search is with a classic checklist.
Launch each action item with a verb to increase your productivity.
For example:
21.04.2022
WHAT INFORMATION IS IN OUR HEALTH FILE
The electronic health file is part of the project "Development and implementation of a National Health Information System".
The deadline for the implementation of the project is the end of December 2022. This is the answer of the Minister of Health Asena Serbezova to a question of deputies.
The Minister clarified that currently separate sections of the electronic health file have been developed and they are already available on the health portal https://his.bg/.
With the commissioning of the individual modules, data are entered in the patient's electronic file. For example, data on e-prescriptions issued and executed, immunizations performed, e-referrals issued and data from outpatient examinations are currently being received.
With the introduction of the e-hospitalization module in early August, the receipt of data on treatments in hospitals will begin, the minister added.
21.04.2022
NEW RULES FOR COVID-19 PATIENTS IN OUR COUNTRY ARE PROPOSED
New rules to be applied in our country for people with COVID-19 are provided by the draft Ordinance on the terms and conditions for conducting diagnostics, prevention and control of COVID-19, uploaded for public discussion here.
They envisage the introduction of mandatory isolation of infectious agents and patients with COVID-19 in their designated places of residence for a certain period of time, consistent with the period of contagion and determined by order of the Minister of Health at the suggestion of the Chief State Health Inspector. In order to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it is necessary to apply a different approach to persons identified as COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 carriers and their contact persons.
It is proposed that any person diagnosed as positive for SARS-CoV-2 be placed under mandatory isolation with a prescription issued by the Director or by a Deputy Director of the Regional Health Inspectorate authorized by him. The requirements and measures that the person should comply with in terms of reducing contact with other persons in the household, compliance with physical distance, hand hygiene, wearing a protective face mask, ventilation to reduce the risk of infection by reducing the likelihood of transmission of the causative agent.
Medical supervision during the obligatory isolation is planned to be performed by a general practitioner or another doctor. In case of necessity of examinations or examinations, appointed by the doctor performing medical supervision, the person under mandatory isolation should notify by phone or e-mail the relevant regional health inspectorate to leave the place of isolation, indicating the time period and the medical institution where perform the examination or research.
Mandatory isolation has been established in a hospital facility after an assessment of the existing epidemic risk of the spread of COVID-19, taking into account the severity of the clinical course of the disease, the age of the person and the presence of concomitant chronic diseases, immunosuppressive conditions and treatments and others, which are the main prerequisites for severe course, complications and death, as well as the social and living conditions in which the person lives and the ability of the person to isolate himself at home, without compromising the need for temporary isolation.
During the epidemic rise in the incidence of COVID-19, the burden on the health system is significant, and access to hospital treatment is difficult in some cases. Therefore, the draft ordinance specifies certain medical and social criteria under which a person positive for COVID-19 can be discharged from a medical institution before full clinical recovery. In such cases, the person continues his isolation at home until the quarantine expires.
A definition of close contact has been introduced to accurately identify individuals at risk of infection after exposure to a COVID-19 case. Persons identified as a confirmed case of COVID-19 who have been ill for up to three months from contact with a person newly infected with SARS-CoV-2 are not subject to quarantine.
Persons who have entered the territory of the country from another country with an epidemic risk of spreading COVID-19 may also be subject to mandatory quarantine. The aim is thus to protect public health from additional imports and the subsequent spread of SARS-CoV-2, including limiting the spread of new variants. With a low or declining incidence of COVID-19 in the country, the quarantine of persons arriving from countries with an epidemic rise or high levels of infection will prevent the emergence of new outbreaks and possible explosions in the country.
The draft ordinance stipulates that the medical supervision of these persons is carried out by their general practitioner or by another doctor, and when they do not have one by the relevant regional health inspectorate. As in the event of clinical symptoms consistent with COVID-19, the person is subject to examination, isolation and treatment.
The draft ordinance states that when registering a case of COVID-19 in an organized labor or children's/student team, an epidemiological study is conducted by the relevant regional health inspectorate and prescribe measures aimed at identifying the sources of infection and their isolation, the susceptible population and its quarantine, as well as the environment (disinfection). It is admitted that in the course of the epidemiological study the regional health inspectorate may order additional hygienic and anti-epidemic measures, in accordance with the development of the epidemic process.
