26.05.2022

UNLIKE BULGARIA, ROMANIA IS IN NO HURRY TO ADOPT THE EURO

Romania has once again postponed its target date for joining the eurozone. The convergence program for the period 2022-2025 lacks a specific date for the adoption of the euro. Instead, the priorities are the socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and reducing the effects of the war in Ukraine.

Unlike Romania, Bulgaria sets January 1, 2024 as the final date for the introduction of the euro, and Croatia, which last joined the EU in 2013, will replace the kuna on January 1, 2023. From July 10, 2020, the Bulgarian lev and the Croatian kuna are included in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) or the so-called eurozone waiting room.

Bulgaria is approaching the eurozone, and Romania - the zone of financial turmoil, writes in an article on the topic political analyst of the newspaper Adevarul Ion Ionica.

In principle, all EU countries are obliged to join the euro area at some point, with some exceptions. The exception was the United Kingdom, which negotiated the preservation of the British pound and eventually left the EU. Denmark remains the only exception in the EU from the changeover to the euro, as it has a "opt-out clause" that it has negotiated. The last country to adopt the single European currency was Lithuania - on 1 January 2015, Sweden and Poland are the other two major economies not yet in the eurozone, along with the Czech Republic and Hungary.

After missing a deadline after the deadline for the changeover to the euro, Romania has completely given up on setting a target date, Romanian media reported. In the 2022-2025 convergence program sent to Brussels, the government of Nicolae Chuka evasively noted that it was pursuing the euro, but that its efforts were focused on economic and social recovery from the pandemic and mitigating the negative effects of the war in Ukraine.

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Finance Minister Adrian Kachu said 2029 was a realistic goal for joining the euro. The previous deadlines officially adopted by the government were 2024 and 2019. Romania's likely future prime minister in May 2023, Marcel Cholacu, who now heads the Chamber of Deputies, recently said the country's priority is Schengen and OECD membership.

The economy is not in good shape

In order for Romania to give up the leu, the budget deficit must not exceed 3 percent of gross domestic product, public debt must be limited to less than 60 percent of GDP, and inflation must not be more than 1.5 percent higher than the average for the best performing euro area countries.

In addition, the country must have a stable exchange rate - it must participate in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) for at least two years without significant deviation from the central rate of ERM II, and the long-term interest rate must not exceed more than two percent the interest rate of the three Member States with the best indicators of price stability.

Marcel Cholacu claims that when his Social Democratic Party was overthrown in 2019, there was only one benchmark left for adopting the euro. "Right now, after a right-wing government, I'm not afraid to say it - we lost two or three criteria," he said in early May.

"Like the pandemic, the war in Ukraine found Romania unprepared or at least incapable of adapting quickly to a new reality," said analyst Ionica. "Romania entered the pandemic with large deficits and came out with even bigger ones," he said, noting that the state was committed to paying more and more and was borrowing more than 8 per cent.

At the same time, economic growth forecasts are steadily deteriorating. The European Commission expects the Romanian economy to slow to 2.6 per cent in 2022 as inflation cuts disposable income and the war in neighboring Ukraine affects confidence in the economy, supply chains and investment. The International Monetary Fund recently lowered its expectations for the Romanian economy - instead of the expected 4.8% growth in the autumn, it is now projected at 2.2%. The EBRD has lowered expectations to 2.5 per cent, and the World Bank expects even more modest Romanian GDP growth of 1.9 per cent this year.

In the coming months, inflation will rise more sharply than expected and is likely to fall below 10% only after mid-2023, according to the Central Bank. In April, inflation in the country reached 13.76% on an annual basis compared to 10.55% in March, according to official data.

The cost of postponing the euro

Romania's macroeconomic indicators "look very bad", says economics professor Christian Paun. He believes the country is not giving a good signal by delaying entry into the eurozone, as it shows its reluctance to integrate so strongly.

Paun also does not accept the excuse of "external crises". "External crises come and go all the time. If it's not a war, there will be a tsunami on an island tomorrow, and then another disaster will happen," the economist said. "After all, a financially stable country is much more resilient to any external crisis," added Professor Paun.

"The non-adoption of the single currency is costing each of us, especially the private sector, the business sector, of everything that means the healthy development of Romania", warns Christian Paun, quoted by Free Europe.

Another professor of economics, Mircea Kosha, believes that the main advantage of eurozone membership is the possible negative situation. "If you are close to a difficult situation, as Greece was more than 10 years ago, if you are close to bankruptcy, the European Union will not let you fall. The European Bank intervenes immediately, as it cannot accept a difficulty in one of the links in the chain If you are not in the euro and you are in a desperate situation, it is difficult to ask for help from elsewhere," Kosha said.

He acknowledged that Romania could not boast a secure horizon for joining the euro, and said focusing on membership of the Schengen area and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) were more realistic goals. "The OECD greatly enhances the image of the country that is part of this club. From this point of view, we hope to have greater market access when borrowing. An OECD country is more reliable and has lower interest rates." he notes.

The professor of economics assesses Bulgaria's ambitions to join the eurozone on January 1, 2024 as a "political statement". "I reviewed Bulgaria's data and saw no successes that could lead to the fulfillment of the conditions by 2024, especially since Bulgaria, as well as Romania and the whole of Europe, are entering a period of crisis, which ultimately will not exist. to meet the criteria. For now, it seems to me that this is more of a political statement," Mircea Kosha told RFI.

25.05.2022

HOW TO PREPARE FOR CLICHE QUESTIONS DURING AN INTERVIEW?

„Tell us a little more about yourself","What are your biggest weaknesses and your biggest strengths"- you have heard these questions dozens of times during each of your job interviews, you have also heard „How you found out about us","Why you want this job","Why we choose you".

These are the so-called cliché questions. They are asked during each interview. You are certainly tired of them, no matter how many times you have to answer, but there is no way they can be avoided. That is why it is much easier to put effort and diligence and prepare in advance. Ok, but how?

There are a few simple but effective ways to do this. Train every day, at least a week before the interview. Stand in front of the mirror - ask yourself and answer the questions. You need to be calm and relaxed - there is no unnecessary tension, because it always plays a bad joke. The idea of ​​these "dry" workouts is to get used to the questions and the answers you will give - to build a sense of security. Of course, you don't have to memorize what you will say during the meeting. This way you will definitely not help yourself, because it will be obvious.

Watch yourself carefully and pay attention to your non-verbal behavior, because it is very important and speaks more about you than you think. Interviewers take it into account.

To be absolutely sure that you are prepared and the cliché questions will not help you, you can visit some websites where you will find tips and suggestions on how to answer the interviewers. Make sure the information on the site you are logged in is accurate. Don't trust forums for opinions and comments.

25.05.2022

THE MONEY FOR A SECOND PENSION BURNS

The money for a second pension is melting. The reason for this is not only high inflation, but also the decline in stock market indices around the world. As a result, most Bulgarian pension funds have a negative return on managing the money of those insured for a second pension, writes the newspaper "Trud", referring to its calculations based on data from the Financial Supervision Commission.

The negative results of the funds have been particularly pronounced since the beginning of the year. For the period from the end of last year to May 20, the losses from the investment of the money for the second pension range between 1% and 10% in the various pension funds. For a period of one year, from May 20, 2021 to May 20, 2022, most pension funds also have a negative return, with losses of up to 7.5% of old-age money. But there are some funds that during this period still have a positive result from their activities.

The reason for this collapse is the decline in stock market indices around the world. Bulgarian pension funds invest a significant part of the money of the insured for a second pension in shares of companies traded on stock exchanges. When the prices of these shares fall, people's money for antiques decreases. In one year, the US stock index Dow Jones fell 9.1%, and from the beginning of the year to May 20 the decline was nearly 14%. The S&P 500 index has fallen by 7% for the year and by 18% since the beginning of the year. The main DAX index on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange for the year fell by about 8.9%, and since the beginning of the year by 11.5%.

All this directly affects the return on investment of antique money managed by Bulgarian pension funds. The funds that the funds hold on deposits in banks are small, as interest rates are around zero. Pension funds also have little investment in real estate, but they are only 1.53% of their total investment, according to FSC data at the end of March. The fact that Bulgarian pension funds have better results than the decline in stock market indices around the world is due to the fact that they invest some of the money in bonds - municipal, corporate and government.

The contributions of the insured for the second pension have been decreasing since the beginning of the year, and in the last 12 months, even without taking into account inflation. At the same time, the annual inflation by the end of April was 14.4%, and only for the first 4 months of the year it was 7.8%, according to official NSI data. Thus, from January to May 20, the money for a second pension in the various funds actually decreased by at least between 8.8% and 18%.

Assets are declining

As of the end of March 2022, the net assets of the pension funds in the country are worth BGN 19.23 billion, the FSC announced. Compared to the end of last year, the assets of the funds decreased by BGN 327 million, provided that the funds continue to receive funds from people's social security contributions. The total number of insured in all private pension funds is over 4.8 million people.

As pension funds collect fees from all social security contributions they receive, they make a profit despite the negative profitability of people's money management. For the first quarter of the year the net profit of the funds is nearly BGN 24 million.

We take a second pension for only one year

Many people will receive a second pension for only about a year. Working Bulgarians have an average of BGN 4,212 for a second pension, accumulated in private universal pension funds, according to FSC data at the end of March.

However, many people who have long since emigrated are also considered insured. They have a small amount in the Bulgarian pension funds, but for years they have not received money from their individual accounts and do not rely on a second pension from Bulgaria. If these people are removed from the calculations, it turns out that the average amount of accumulated funds for the second pension of people for whom at least one social security contribution has been received in the last 12 months is BGN 5,672, according to FSC data.

This number is also not entirely correct, because there are many long-term unemployed people in the country who have not been able to find a job for more than a year and therefore do not receive insurance in their pension funds. But even if we take the larger number for the average amount of funds in a universal pension fund per person, it turns out that the money is enough to receive the minimum pension of BGN 370 for only a year and 3 months.

The payment of the first second pensions to people who have reached retirement age after September 1, 2021 has already begun. By the end of March, 3,908 people had started receiving their second pensions. Of these, 463 people will receive lifelong pensions, and 3,445 people will receive deferred payments for a certain period of time. These are people who have insured in private pension funds and have reached retirement age.

In the first quarter, the funds paid BGN 196,000 for pensions, which makes an average of BGN 140 per person per month, and a little over BGN 2 million for deferred payments to the insured, which is an average of nearly BGN 200 per person. per month. Most people want to get their money quickly through larger installments in a short period of time.

25.05.2022

THE DAMAGE IS UNDERESTIMATED: COVID-19 IS ALREADY THE MOST COMMON DISEASE AMONG WORKERS

Nearly 5 million working days have been lost to the Bulgarian economy as a result of COVID - crisis last year alone. Every tenth sick leave issued during the year is due to this disease, and together with the increased quarantine by more than 50% and the cases not confirmed by clinical trials, their share is probably even higher.

Thus, COVID-19 last year became the most common disease (fourth position a year earlier) and hospitalized for it are 50% more than the second most common disease.

This follows from the statistics of the National Social Security Institute (NSSI) for the sick leaves paid in 2021. The figures released by the institute outline another aspect of the pandemic, which closed some businesses, disrupted supply chains and showed a lack of willingness on the part of the authorities to set emergency rules.

The National Social Security Institute does not break down the amount of funds paid for patients with different diagnoses, but the amounts paid under this item can be judged by the average compensation, which amounts to BGN 42 per day.

Employers commented that the high morbidity during the pandemic was linked to the disbursement of significant funds that had worsened the "fragile financial health" of companies, and the damage suffered by businesses would remain underestimated. They also noted a number of side effects from the spread of the coronavirus, such as mental trauma to the workforce. And they insist that the state has a pre-prepared plan of action in the conditions of a pandemic, which is coordinated and lost with the competent departments, organizations and businesses, so that wrong organizational decisions are not reached, as at the beginning of the pandemic.

Every tenth sick leave is because of COVID-19

In 2021, 797,813 people (26.22% of those insured in the General Sickness and Maternity Fund) were paid benefits for nearly BGN 600 million for common disease. Their sick leaves are 1.68 million in 14.4 million working days. In 2020, the National Social Security Institute paid BGN 535.6 million for nearly 14 million working days. For 2019, the amount paid is BGN 489.2 million for 14.3 million working days.

Identified COVID-19 has the highest share last year, ahead of acute infections of the upper respiratory tract and bronchitis. For the period, 283,484 such hospitals were issued with an average duration of 17.6 days, which makes 10.05% of the total number and 50% more than the second most important diagnosis.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the World Health Organization has introduced new codes for medical reporting of COVID-19. The virus was identified when COVID-19 was confirmed by laboratory testing, regardless of the severity of clinical signs or symptoms.

When the virus is unidentified, medical professionals issue a medical certificate with a different code. In these cases, the disease is diagnosed clinically or epidemiologically, but laboratory tests are inconclusive or not available, according to information from the Ministry of Health. Such are another 72,409 cases last year. Their average duration is again relatively high - 10.9 days.

In 2020, in the first year of the epidemic, hospitals for identified COVID-19 were fourth in number - 113,914 with a share of 4.29%. There were 32,198 people with unidentified COVID-19 during this period.

Thus, last year both types of COVID hospitals have more than doubled compared to 2020.

According to the ordinance of the health authorities, which was in force in 2021, people with an official positive result (from a test done in a certified laboratory) were subject to 14-day isolation, and their contact - to 10-day quarantine. Earlier this year, this rule was changed and the deadlines are now 10 and 7 days, respectively.

According to the Social Security Code, the benefit for the first 3 working days of temporary incapacity for work is paid by the employer and represents 70% of the average daily gross remuneration. The remaining days are paid by the NSSI (80% of the salary).

And quarantine benefits are increasing

During the year, over BGN 109 million were paid to 367,122 people (12.07%) for caring for a sick person or quarantine. Again, no breakdown by type of disease is made, but available data show a significant increase in hospitalizations for this reason.

For 2020, the total number of people with paid benefits for caring for a sick person or quarantine is 239,315, and 318,650 sick leaves have been issued to them. Thus, the increase in this group is more than 50%. It is even higher than in 2019, when less than 105,000 people received such benefits.

From 2022, parents of students under 12 who do not attend school due to quarantine will be entitled to sick leave - read here.

The reaction of the business

"Most companies have certainly taken stock, but hospital losses are far from the only ones," said Dobrin Ivanov, executive director of Bulgaria's Industrial Capital Association.

"The biggest losses are probably from lost profits. A separate issue is that the COVID wave has also caused some mental trauma to various segments of the workforce. There are in-depth studies on this issue in different countries. They may to some extent "They are also extrapolated to the Bulgarian reality, but the truth is that a large part of the losses are difficult to estimate. In practice, the damage suffered by the business will remain underestimated," he said.

According to him, the pandemic has aggravated the problem with the payment of the first three days of sick leave at the expense of the business, but does not expect this to lead to a rethinking of this rule.

Asked whether the state and business should be better prepared for possible future similar situations, Ivanov said that in many countries such scenarios related to any possible disasters are being developed by national security specialists and mathematicians.

Prof. Grigor Dimitrov, director general at the Employers' Interests Center at the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce, said the high incidence during the pandemic was linked to the disbursement of significant funds that had worsened the "fragile financial health" of companies.

According to him, it is imperative that the state has a pre-prepared action plan in the event of a pandemic, which is coordinated and lost with the competent agencies and organizations.

"The lack of such a plan, as was the case in our situation, led to many contradictory and often ill-considered decisions and actions of the government, which hindered the business in its activities and were associated with significant losses for him," said Dimitrov. points around the settlements at the first "lockdown". "Along with this, it is necessary to create practice and targeted training to help businesses prepare their own action plans in such situations," he added.

COVID-19 becomes an occupational disease

The European Union will recognize coronavirus infection as an occupational disease according to an agreement reached between European countries and representatives of trade unions and employers, the European Commission announced on Thursday (May 19th).

The Commission will recommend that COVID-19 be included in the lists of occupational diseases in European countries by the end of the year in the health, social care and home care sectors and, in the event of a pandemic, in outbreak sectors. of the disease in activities with a proven risk of infection.

The change will allow workers who became infected while working with COVID-19 to receive rights, including compensation, if provided for by national law.

According to the Bulgarian legislation and according to the terms and conditions set by the Social Security Code, in case of an accident at work and occupational disease the insured or their heirs are entitled to cash benefits for temporary incapacity for work, cash benefits for employment, personal or survivor's disability pension, cash benefits for prevention and rehabilitation and one-time assistance in case of death.

25.05.2022

FROM TOMORROW WE WORK FOR OURSELVES

We have been working for the state for exactly 146 days in 2022, according to the Institute for Market Economics.

The state budget, adopted this year at the end of February, envisages public revenues of over BGN 57 billion in 2022. Assuming that we produce an average of BGN 392 million per day - calculated on the basis of GDP projected at the time of budget adoption. 143 billion levs - we need at least 146 days to replenish the state treasury.

The duration of this period corresponds to revenues under the consolidated fiscal program amounting to 40% of the country's GDP. In the last two years, as a result of higher levels of redistribution through the budget, the date of tax freedom in our country has shifted from mid to late May.

While immediately before the pandemic the levels of redistribution are in the range of 36-37% of the country's GDP, and the budget balance is around zero, after the impact of the pandemic in 2020 we see a growing role of the state and relatively high levels of budget deficit. more from IME.

The country's medium-term budget forecast predicts that consolidated revenues will remain at around 40 percent and that the budget deficit will remain around or even above 3% of GDP until at least 2024. This means that the day of tax freedom will remain at the end. in May and in the following years.

In 2022, the budget has a deficit of BGN 5.9 billion or 4.1% of the country's GDP. The BGN 5.9 billion in question is equal to more than 15 working days. These are the extra days during which the economy would work only for the budget, if it had to cover the planned deficit. We call them working days, because the deficit ultimately weighs on taxpayers - albeit postponed to the future. At the same time, Bulgaria receives grants from European citizens, as the planned revenues from the EU budget are over BGN 5.1 billion. Transfers from the EU actually save us nearly 13 days of work for the state. The official date of tax freedom - May 26 - takes into account all revenues, including the "contribution" of European taxpayers.

And this year we will mainly work to pay two main groups of taxes. In total, we need nearly 58 days for direct taxes and social and health insurance - 24 days for direct taxes and 34 days for insurance funds. We need 54 days for indirect taxes, and nearly 38 days are only for VAT revenues.

Property taxes, which are a key source of revenue for municipalities, take us a little over 3 days. We need 18 days for non-tax revenues, and here the revenues from the various fees for citizens and businesses have the greatest weight.

25.05.2022

GREECE IS LOOKING FOR WORKERS FROM ABROAD

The agricultural sector in Greece is exhausted by labor shortages and farmers are looking for seasonal workers from other countries.

After the tourism sector and the agricultural sector, problems with labor shortages began. Farmers are urging the government to introduce a simplified procedure for migrants to work in agriculture, BNR reported.

In one area of ​​Crete alone, there are less than 25,000 workers in vegetable greenhouses. In northern Greece, where they traditionally rely on seasonal workers from the Balkans, there are also not enough thousands.

At least 10,000 workers are in demand in the Pella region, famous for its cherries. Local producers even invite agricultural workers from Ukraine. Messages were also sent to refugee camps in Poland.

According to Greek farmers, who are worried that their harvest will remain unharvested this summer, the pay and conditions they offer are the same as in other European countries.

25.05.2022

AN ELECTRONIC REGISTER OF PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE WHO NEITHER WORK NOR STUDY IS BEING CREATED

An electronic register of unemployed Bulgarians will be created, which will provide information to the employees of the Employment Agency where they are and what are the reasons why hundreds of thousands of Bulgarians neither study nor work.

This is provided by the amendments to the Employment Promotion Act, which were debated in the second reading by the Parliament.

The register of inactive persons will not be public and only the interested institutions will have access to it. The data will be collected in cooperation with the NRA, MES, GRAO, NSI, ASA.

According to a report by the Employment Agency, 900,000 Bulgarians neither work nor study. 170,000 of them are young people or this is 17 percent of young people in our country and according to this indicator Bulgaria is one of the leading places, according to the reasons of the petitioners.

"Inactive people are a serious reserve on the labor market, but currently the Employment Agency reaches a small part of them due to legal gaps," reads the reasons for the bill.

According to the petitioners, the changes in the law will allow the agency to actively interact with institutions for analysis, search and contact with people who are of working age, but due to various factors can not reach the agency's services to find work.

25.05.2022

SEE WHAT STAFF PRIVATE AND STATE COMPANIES ARE LOOKING FOR

State and private companies have announced what kind of staff they are looking for, it is clear from the Draft Decision for approval of the list of employers who have the right to conclude contracts under Art. 95a, para. 1 of the Higher Education Act in the academic year 2022 - 2023, uploaded for public discussion.

Based on this list, the state will determine the payment of tuition fees for students with contracts with an employer.

The list for the academic year 2022/2023 includes 153 employers nominated by 7 ministers - Economy and Industry, Health, Energy, Regional Development and Public Works, Agriculture, Transport and Environment and Water. The need for employers included in the list is stated to be 1416 specialists.

The Minister of Health has proposed a list of 53 hospitals (public and private) with a reported shortage of nurses.

The other ministries have included in their proposals private and state companies from all parts of Bulgaria. The Minister of Innovation and Growth has not proposed employers to be included in the list.

The proposed act ensures the sustainability of the policy pursued by the Ministry of Education and Science to improve the quality of higher education and achieve compliance with the dynamics of the labor market.

The expected results from the implementation of the proposed draft act are optimization of the relationship between higher education and the needs of the economy and society by implementing the mechanism for covering by the state the training costs of students who have a contract with an employer to provide internships. the relevant specialty for the period of training and in the workplace after its successful completion, reads the reasons for the project.

25.05.2022

THE RULES FOR SOCIAL BENEFITS ARE CHANGING

Social benefits will now be determined on the basis of the size of the poverty line for the respective year, determined by a decree of the Council of Ministers. This is provided by amendments to the Social Assistance Act, introduced by the Council of Ministers in the National Assembly.

Until now, the law provided for the Council of Ministers to determine the monthly amount of the guaranteed minimum income, which serves as a basis for determining social benefits.

The law will enter into force on January 1, 2023.

If the unemployed people who meet the conditions for monthly benefits refuse to participate in employment programs, they will be deprived of monthly benefits for a period of six months, instead of one year, as before, is another change in the law.

The scope of cases in which deductions from cash social benefits can be made is also expanding. Such will be able to be done on unscrupulously received funds from social benefits, established by an effective act.

In addition, those who have received social benefits in bad faith are deprived of this money until the amounts due are reimbursed, but for a period not exceeding one year and not two years as before.

The changes also state that the Minister of Labor and Social Policy and persons authorized by him will have the right to access data from information systems, registers and databases in the field of social assistance maintained by the Social Assistance Agency.

The Social Assistance Directorates and the Social Assistance Agency will have the right to free access to our data from the Registry Agency, the Employment Agency, the Ministry of Education and Science, the National Social Security Institute and the National Revenue Agency, the bill says.

25.05.2022

ILO: THE LABOR MARKET SITUATION IS DETERIORATING

The labor market situation in the first quarter of 2022 was worse than at the end of last year and will continue to deteriorate in the second quarter, especially as a result of restrictions in China and events in Ukraine. This is the forecast of the International Labor Organization (ILO) from today.

In the first quarter of 2022, the total number of hours worked worldwide was 3.8% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019 - before the introduction of restrictions, the report said. The ILO estimates that this decline will reach 4.2% between April and June this year, equivalent to the loss of 123 million full-time jobs.

"Overall working hours are expected to decline in the second quarter of 2022, mainly due to ongoing measures to curb the spread of the pandemic in China, exacerbated by the events surrounding the conflict in Ukraine," experts said.

According to the report, in the fourth quarter of last year, 3.2% fewer working hours were worked worldwide than in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Between January and March 2022, the situation worsened compared to the previous quarter, which is an "obstacle to the recovery" of economic life observed in 2021.

The International Labor Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations, develops international policies to improve working and living conditions and sets international labor standards.