09.01.2024

HOW MANY UNEMPLOYED COMPETE FOR ONE JOB VACANCY

On average, six unemployed people compete for one vacant job, according to the latest data of the Employment Agency for the whole country as of November 30, 2023.

The competition is greatest in the Targovishte region, where 19 people compete for each vacant position, and the smallest - in the capital Sofia and the regions of Ruse, Silistra, Varna, Kyustendil and Dobrich - four each for 1 free place.

The unemployment rate for the country, according to the latest data from the Employment Agency, is 5.5 percent or just over 156,000 people. 31,000 of them are long-term unemployed with registration at the labor offices for over a year, and the districts with the most people in this group are Blagoevgrad, Vratsa, Montana and Shumen - all of them with over 2,000 people.

In the city of Sofia, unemployment is the lowest - 1.6 percent, followed by Varna region with 3.5 percent. The percentage is highest in Vidin – 15 and Montana – just under 13.

The Employment Agency also monitors the level of people without a livelihood under the age of 29. For the entire country, they are just under 19,000 people, with the city of Sofia and the regions of Blagoevgrad and Plovdiv having the most unemployed youth.

08.01.2024

WHAT CHANGES TO INSURANCE, INCOME AND BENEFITS COME INTO FORCE FROM 2024

The new year started with a number of important changes for workers. From January 2024, the minimum wage becomes BGN 933. The new amount was determined by a decision of the Council of Ministers in October.

It was established according to the provisions of the Labor Code, according to which the minimum wage for the country is set at 50 percent of the average gross wage for the last two quarters of the previous year and the first two quarters of the current year. The new amount of the minimum wage will increase the income of over 500,000 workers, Social Minister Ivanka Shalapatova announced a few days ago.

The minimum insurance income for self-insured persons becomes BGN 933, and the maximum - BGN 3,750.

In the new year, the minimum daily unemployment benefit remains at BGN 18, and the maximum increases to BGN 107.14. This was resolved with the adoption of the second reading of the State Social Insurance Bill for 2024. It was also decided that the insurer would pay the insured person for the first two working days (instead of the previous three) of the temporary incapacity for work. After the third day of incapacity for work, payment is made by the state social insurance.

The poverty line in the country is also rising - from BGN 504 to BGN 526. About 800,000 Bulgarians from vulnerable groups are expected to receive financial support in a higher amount in 2024 as a result of the increase in the poverty line. Since last year, social benefits are already determined depending on the poverty line.

From July 1, 2024, all pensions granted until the end of 2023 will be upgraded by 11 percent according to the so-called swiss rule The minimum amount of the pension for length of service and age will be BGN 580.57. The maximum amount of one or more pensions received without supplements remains BGN 3,400.

The average pension will reach BGN 833, Social Minister Ivanka Shalapatova also said. It is planned that from July 1, 2024, the supplement from the deceased spouse's pension (the so-called widow's supplement) will increase to 30% of the pension or the sum of the pensions that the deceased spouse received.

The one-time allowance for the birth of a child in 2024 will be BGN 375 for the first child, BGN 900 for the second, BGN 450 for the third, BGN 300 for the fourth and each subsequent child.

The monthly allowances for a child up to the completion of secondary education, but no more than 20 years of age, remain as follows: for a family with one child – BGN 50; with two children – BGN 110; with three children – BGN 165; with four children – BGN 175, and for each additional child in the family, the family allowance increases by BGN 20. The amount of monetary compensation for raising a child up to the age of 2 and for raising a child up to the age of 8 by the father (the adoptive parent), which remains BGN 780, is retained. From this year, the income criterion for receiving the aid will be changed. Families with an income of BGN 710 per family member will receive the full amount of the aid. Families with an income of BGN 710.01 to BGN 810 per family member will receive 80 percent of the full amount of assistance.

The amount of the monthly allowance for raising a child with a disability is as follows: for a child with a certain 90% and above 90% type and degree of disability or degree of permanently reduced working capacity – BGN 1,180; for a child with a certain 70 to 90% type and degree of disability or degree of permanently reduced working capacity - BGN 570; for a child with a certain 50 to 70% type and degree of disability or degree of permanently reduced working capacity – BGN 450.

The amount of the one-time aid for students in the 8th grade for the academic year 2024-2025 is BGN 300, the parliament recorded in the state budget for the next year. Children in the first, second, third and fourth grades will also receive BGN 300 each.

05.01.2024

WHAT IS A CURRENT ADDRESS AND WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE FROM A PERMANENT ADDRESS? WHEN IS IT CHANGED AND DECLARED?

Every Bulgarian has a personal registration card, which by law must be kept for 130 years after its creation. There is a lot of data in it. This card must contain the name of the relevant person, written in Bulgarian and in Latin. It is entered if there is an alias or a name abroad. As well as mandatory gender, social security number, date of birth, citizenship and residence status, place of birth. Also birth certificate, marital status, marriage certificate, husband or wife with full details.

A court decision for the dissolution of marriage is also recorded - the number of the case on which the decision was made, the date on which it came into force, and the name of the court that made it. In this card, the data of the children, of the father, mother, brothers, sisters are recorded (PIN or date of birth, name, gender, permanent address, citizenship, and for the deceased - number, date and place of drawing up the death certificate). The card also lists the issued identity documents - type, number and date of issue. The legal restrictions, including by type, are indicated, if any. There is a place for "special notes", and finally the date and place of death is entered, as well as the death certificate - number, date and place of issue.

In this arrangement of the data entered in the electronic personal registration card of a Bulgarian citizen, two more things have an important place - permanent and current address.

The Civil Registration Act (CRA) has a special Chapter 4 entitled "Address Registration". It is there that the rules and obligations of each person associated with this registration, with a current, permanent address, as well as the procedures and obligations of each are defined. According to Art. 90 of the Civil Registration Act, every person subject to civil registration is obliged to state in writing his permanent and current address. This is precisely what the address registration of the person is, which is carried out by the mayor of the municipality, the region or the town hall or by officials designated by them. It is important to know that it is not done ex officio, but at the request of the relevant person who wants to register.

The permanent and current addresses of the newborn child, for example, match the respective addresses of its parents. When parents have different permanent addresses, they choose one of them for their child. When the parents have different current addresses, the mother's current address is also the child's current address.

Current address is the address where the person lives. Each person has only one current address. The current address of Bulgarian citizens whose place of residence is abroad is reflected in the population register only with the name of the country in which they live.

It is quite possible that the permanent address matches the current one. Even very often it is so. However, every person is obliged to notify the change of his current address within 30 days, according to Article 99 of the Civil Registration Act. It is explicitly stated that the address card for a change of current address is submitted to the municipality, region, town hall or settlement where the person lives. When a Bulgarian citizen lives abroad, the address card for changing the current address is submitted to the permanent address authorities. The address card is processed immediately for updating the National Database "Population".

The persons who have provided shelter in a hotel, motel, holiday home or other place of shelter are obliged to register the stays in special books, providing their data to local authorities or the Ministry of the Interior upon request.

It is not allowed to register a current or permanent address for more than 4 months in a hotel, motel, holiday home or other place of shelter. The limitation in the first sentence also applies when re-registration is carried out in the same or in another place for shelter on the territory of the same municipality.

In order to perform address registration at an address in the country, individuals must submit either an ownership document or documents for the use of the property for residential purposes, including a contract for the provision of social services of a residential type and a contract for accommodation in specialized institutions. It is possible to provide other documents, it is important that they prove the ownership or use of the property. In order to carry out address registration, written consent of the owner, when the applicant is not the owner, is also presented, by means of a model declaration submitted in person to the authority or with a notarized signature.

If it is a question of persons who are directly related to the owner or user of the property, as well as the spouses of these persons, they do not present the above-mentioned documents. In these cases, the mayor of the municipality, of the region or of the town hall or the officials appointed by them carry out an official check in the population register of the family relationship between the owner or user of the property and the person who declares a permanent and/or current address, as well as a check through the "Local Taxes and Fees" departments regarding the ownership of the property.

It is also important to know what a permanent address is and how it differs from a current one. The address in the settlement that the person chooses to be entered in the population register is permanent. It is always on the territory of Bulgaria. Each person can have only one permanent address. It is the address for correspondence with state authorities and local self-government bodies. Current is the address where the person lives. Each person has only one current address. The current address of Bulgarian citizens whose place of residence is abroad is reflected in the population register only with the name of the country in which they live.

The permanent address is declared by submitting an application from the person to the mayor. The application is made in person, and exceptionally - by an authorized person after presenting a notarized express power of attorney. For minors and persons placed under interdiction, the application is made by their legal representatives. The current address is declared by submitting an address card from the person to the mayor. Here, too, the rules on authorization and legal representatives apply.

The application for a change of permanent address is submitted to the municipality or town hall where the person chooses to be entered in the population register. When the permanent address is changed, the change is reported through the National Database "Population" of the municipality of previous permanent address to the municipality where the current address is, and to the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

05.01.2024

THERE IS WORK FOR EVERYONE - EMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE HAS NEVER BEEN SO HIGH

Since the end of the pandemic, the level of employment in the EU has reached its historical peak. 74.6% of the population between the ages of 20 and 64 work, according to last year's data. If the upward trend is not interrupted by something extraordinary, the European Union will very soon achieve its ahead-of-time goal of employment of 78% by 2030. This is according to a recently published Eurostat study.

In 2017, the EC, the European Parliament and the Council of Europe adopted a pillar of social rights with an action plan aimed at promoting fair and efficient labor markets and social systems across Europe.

To achieve this goal, the EU has set three targets for the labor market by 2030 – at least 78% of the working-age population is employed, at least 60% of adults are in training every year and the number of people at risk of poverty, to be reduced by at least 15 million people.

The pandemic and the crisis that followed had almost blocked progress, but the data now suggests that, at least in terms of employment, the situation is not bad. In 2022, the number of working people between 20 and 64 in the EU is a total of 193 million people, representing 74.6% of all in this age group. For comparison, just 10 years ago the average employment in the union was 66.8%, and in Bulgaria - 62.9%, but since then it has been continuously increasing, except for 2020.

There are also countries that have already achieved and even exceeded the 2030 target. These are the Netherlands with 82.9%, followed by Sweden with 82.2%, Estonia with 81.9%, the Czech Republic with 81.3% and Malta with 81.1%. These indicators show that there are practically no unemployed people there, except for pensioners, children and those who are studying. In contrast, Croatia (69.7%), Spain (69.5%), Romania (68.5%), Greece (66.3%) and Italy (64.8%) have employment rates below 70% .

Unlike its other economic indicators, our country does not perform badly in terms of employment. After a drop of about two percentage points during the pandemic year 2020, in 2022 in our country it increased to 75.7% and it is higher than the average for the European Union. In any case, a larger percentage of the able-bodied population works in Bulgaria than in Italy and Spain, as well as our neighbors.

In addition, our country shows a relatively small difference in employment between the sexes, which is also monitored as an indicator by the EC. Working women in the age group 20-64 are 71%, and for men - 80 percent, while there are countries such as Italy and Greece, in which about half of the female population works, and for men employment reaches two thirds. In the three Baltic states and Finland, the gender gap is only around three percentage points. The data show one feature – in each country, the higher levels are mainly in the regions around the capitals.

For example, in the Bulgarian South-West region, which also includes Sofia, employment has already reached 81.7% of the working-age population in 2022.

There are a total of 242 regions in the EU. With the exception of the Finnish archipelago of Åland, where occupancy is a record 89.7%, the rest at the top of this ranking are all around the capitals of their respective countries.

Such are, for example, the Polish Warsaw Metropolitan Region with 85.4% employment, the Swedish Stockholm Region with 85.1% and many other regions in the Netherlands, Belgium and France. In the Czech Republic, for example, in all 8 regions employment has passed the target of 78%, but in the region around Prague it is the highest.

According to economists, employment is a much more important indicator of the labor market than unemployment. Its historically lowest level in our country does not yet mean a good state of the labor market, because it can also be due to migration. When many people of working age leave the country, and the statistics continue to show them as permanent residents in Bulgaria, this naturally reduces the unemployment rate.

However, the situation in Bulgaria at the moment is not like this - decreasing unemployment is combined with an increase in the employed. Since the last quarter of 2021, data from the National Institute of Employment Statistics show a continuous upward trend. The increase of 3.8% at the end of 2022 compared to a year earlier is even one of the largest on an annual basis in the last decade.

"Record-high employment is an impressive achievement in itself, especially given the difficult and uncertain economic environment of the last 2 years and the numerous predictions of an economic crash. More impressively, however, employment in the European Union has surpassed that of the United States. After ten years of dominance, employment in North America is now lower than in Europe, and not because of a decline in the US, but because of record high employment in Europe," commented Georgi Angelov, senior economist at the Open Society Institute.

According to him, these data illustrate the major reforms that the European Union made after the global financial crisis and which significantly changed the competitiveness of the Old Continent. This has borne fruit right during and after the pandemic. European anti-crisis programs, for example, according to Angelov, are more effective and targeted, in contrast to handing out checks and trillion dollar deficits in the US.

"Even in Bulgaria, the 60/40 measure worked well, without costing much, unlike the electricity compensations for the kalpak business later, which were expensive, ineffective and only pumped up inflation instead of reducing it," added Angelov.

Our incomes are among the lowest, but in only three countries do they work harder than us

In addition to relatively high employment, the labor market in Bulgaria is also distinguished by one of the longest working weeks in Europe, Eurostat data show. They largely dispel the myth that rich countries work a lot and poor countries less, as well as that northern peoples are very hardworking and southern people are not so much.

Bulgaria, for example, is one of the poorest countries in the EU, but with a long working week, while the Netherlands, which is among the richest, has the shortest.

The survey measures in hours only the duration of the working week, including main and overtime work, whether paid or not. Travel time to and from work, as well as rest and meal time, are subtracted from the data.

Thus, the average working week in Europe is 37.5 hours. But there are significant differences between the newly acceded countries and those with a lower standard of living and the rest. For example, the working week in Serbia, which is a candidate for EU membership, is the longest - 43.3 hours. They work a little less in our southern neighbor Greece - 41 hours, and in Poland 40.4 hours. Immediately after are Romania and Bulgaria - an average of 40.2 hours.

Among the countries where work is above the European average are also Portugal, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, etc.

At the other extreme are the countries with strong economies and high incomes. For example, in Germany the average working week is about 2 hours longer than in the Netherlands. Fewer than average also work in Norway, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Belgium, etc.

In many of the countries with developed economies, the lower duration is also due to the fact that the labor legislation there strongly restricts work on Saturdays and Sundays. In France and Hungary, for example, there is even a regulation that does not allow supermarkets and other commercial establishments to be open on Sundays, and on Saturdays they must have reduced working hours. There are also strong restrictions in this regard in Greece, where even municipal markets are closed on Sundays, national holidays and weekends.

According to the Eurostat study, there are quite large differences in the duration of employment and by professional activities. In Europe, they work the longest in agriculture, where wages are traditionally among the lowest for the respective country. For farmers, the working week lasts an average of 42.8 hours. Construction workers, hotel and restaurant workers, and transport workers follow - all activities that are rather at the lower end of the pay scale. In tourism, for example, in the height of the active season in our country, work is often done for 14 and even 16 hours a day, although this lasts only for two or three months of the year - in summer or winter.

In construction, the working day is long to a large extent also because some of the activities depend on weather conditions. When weather permits, more work is done to compensate for delays due to bad weather conditions.

Administrators, nurses, doctors, teachers and those employed in the entertainment industry are more likely to work a short work week, between 33 and 34 hours per week.

There is also a difference between the sexes - in all the countries studied, men work longer than women. However, the difference, especially for those working full-time, is not significant, and in some countries it is even absent. In the three Baltic countries and in Finland, gender equality is even evident in employment data. But in the Netherlands and Iceland, for example, men work 4 hours more per week than women.

"The length of the working week is a good indicator, but labor productivity, the organization of processes, and whether or not the relevant economy produces products with high added value must also be taken into account. This is the explanation why in richer countries they can afford shorter working hours than in others", explained Zhasmina Saraivanova - chief expert on labor legislation at the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA).

"The data in such studies depend a lot on whether the relevant labor legislation facilitates or hinders overtime work. In richer countries, there are usually more brakes, and if an employer wants to pay more for overtime, the law puts such requirements on him that his bill does not come out," she added.

Saraivanova recalled that it was not by chance that the idea of a 4-day work week started in Western European countries, and that the trends to work remotely from the office or hybrid, which the pandemic has simply strengthened, come from there.

The experiment of working 4 days a week, for example, is currently most advanced in Great Britain, the Netherlands and partly in Germany. Even there, however, the working week is not officially 4 days long, but the labor legislation allows any employer to introduce it. It is mainly characteristic of hybrid workers, for example, where processes allow people to work both remotely and in the office. In Bulgaria, the Labor Code also does not prohibit a 4-day working week at full employment.

04.01.2024

THE BULGARIAN-ROMANIAN PROJECT "CARMEN 2"

The EC included the joint project "Carmen 2" between the Bulgarian Electricity System Operator (ESO) and the Romanian transmission operator "Transelectrica", as well as the distribution company "Delgaz Grid" (Delgaz Grid S.A.) in the sixth list of projects of common European interest.

The project is aimed at digitization and expansion of the electricity transmission network of Bulgaria and Romania in order to modernize and increase its transmission capacity to connect the newly constructed RES capacities.

ESO specifies that the "Carmen 2" project envisages the implementation of investments by 2030 aimed at improving the stability of the network and increasing its capacity, achieving cost efficiency for electricity distribution, implementing consumption management mechanisms, optimizing work of the power system.

The implementation of the "Carmen 2" project will promote cross-border cooperation between Bulgaria, Romania and the neighboring countries Hungary, Moldova and Ukraine.

Within the framework of the project, the Electricity System Operator of Bulgaria will implement investments in the amount of nearly BGN 1 billion to modernize the electricity transmission network and increase its capacity in North-Eastern Bulgaria in order to utilize the high potential for the production of renewable electricity of over 8,000 megawatts , including in the form of green hydrogen.

ESO plans the construction of new fully digitized 400/110 kV (kilovolt) substations, reconstruction and modernization of existing substations and increasing their capacity, through transformation from voltage level 220/110kV to 400/110 kV. The electricity transmission operator of Bulgaria also plans the construction of 222 km of new digitized 400 kV power lines.

The measures to strengthen and modernize the electricity transmission network will be directed mainly in the region of North-Eastern Bulgaria in order to increase its capacity and utilize the wind potential for the production of green electricity, as well as to ensure the transmission of renewable electricity along the priority North-South cross-border corridor.

The planned development and digitization of the electricity system is dictated both by the massive deployment of new RES capacities and by the expected development of electric and hydrogen charging infrastructure throughout Bulgaria in response to the goals of transition to emission-free transport.

The announcement of the EC's sixth priority list of projects of common European interest coincided with the 4th edition of the exhibition of projects for the development of the European energy infrastructure, which is traditionally held in Brussels, the ESO added.

The electricity system operator responded to the invitation of the European Executive Agency for Climate Infrastructure and the Environment and participated with a special stand and a film telling about the successful implementation of the five projects of common European interest already implemented by ESO. Within the framework of the exhibition, the electricity transmission operator of Bulgaria shared its experience gained over the past five years in the construction of 450 kilometers of new 400 kV power lines.

The ESA's implementation of the five projects was identified as key to strengthening the EU's energy infrastructure and cited as a successful example of achieving Europe's climate neutrality targets by 2030.

This is the reason for the invitation to ESO to present the realized projects at the 4th exhibition of projects of common European interest in Brussels and share the company's achievements in the construction of a sustainable cross-border energy infrastructure.

Over the past five years, with the help of European co-financing, the Electricity System Operator of Bulgaria has built 4 internal power lines and the Bulgarian section of the intersystem power line between the Maritsa Iztok substation in our country and the Nea Santa substation in Greece.

The implementation by ESO of the projects of common European interest with a total value of nearly BGN 1 billion improve the security and flexibility of the electricity transmission network, ensure the integration of electricity produced from renewable sources, and increase the transmission capacities at our borders with Romania and Greece.

03.01.2024

PAID ANNUAL LEAVE OF A WORKER WITH A PERMANENTLY REDUCED WORKING CAPACITY

I am employed with the right to work. Am I entitled to additional paid annual leave beyond the 20 working days?

In Art. 319 of the Labor Code stipulates that employees with a permanently reduced working capacity of 50 and over 50 percent have the right to basic paid annual leave in the amount of not less than 26 working days.

The leave under Art. 319 of the Labor Code, to which workers and employees with a permanently reduced work capacity of 50 and over 50 percent are entitled, is essentially a basic paid annual leave and is used on a special basis provided for this legal basis (in the 26 working days are including the 20 working days under Article 155, Paragraph 4 of the Labor Code).

A larger amount of leave under Art. 319 of the Labor Code can be agreed in the collective labor agreement, as well as between the parties to the employment relationship.

03.01.2024

BNB'S AUTUMN FORECAST – BETWEEN OPTIMISM AND CONSERVATISM

Comment from the specialist

Teodor Nedev, Institute of Market Economy

After the autumn macroeconomic forecasts of the EC and the Ministry of Finance were recently published, the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) also published its expectations for the development of the Bulgarian economy until 2025. This gives us the opportunity to compare the three available autumn forecasts - of the Ministry of Finance (published on October 27 and reporting data until middle of the same month), of the EC (published on November 15 and reporting data until the last days of October) and of the BNB (published on November 22 and reporting data until November 10).

While the EC's forecast for the growth of the Bulgarian economy emerges as more conservative, and that of the Ministry of Finance as more optimistic, the BNB's expectations are in the middle. The three forecasts converge on the expected GDP growth for 2023 – 2% according to the EC, 1.8% according to the Ministry of Finance and 1.9% according to the BNB. For 2024, the Ministry of Finance predicts the highest growth (3.2%), followed by the BNB (2.7%) and then the EC with 1.8%. For next year, the expectations are reversed, with the EC again being the most conservative with a projected growth of 2.6%, while the ministry expects 3% and the BNB – 3.6%.

The three forecasts do not differ much regarding the main factors for the dynamics of the economy in 2023. The BNB, like the MoF and the EC, expects GDP growth to be driven upwards by strong consumption and net exports (as here both imports and exports are shrinking, but the decline in imports is much stronger) and down from the sharp contraction in inventories.

The differences become more visible in the forecasts for the next two years. Like the MoF, the BNB has also demonstrated some optimism for the activation of investments, betting on capital formation growth of 9% for 2024 (at 4% according to the EC and 9.6% according to the MoF) and 10.1% for 2025 (at 3.3% according to the EC and 7.9% according to the MoF). It is important to note that the growth rates expected by the BNB for the coming years are close to those of the Ministry of Finance, but still, the central bank's forecast is somewhat more conservative, as it predicts a decline in investment in 2023. i.e. capital formation will grow against a reduced base. The BNB's forecast sees investments as a key driver of growth for the next two years and, just like the MoF, expects them to increase rapidly due to the implementation of projects under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which will subsequently strengthen private investment activity.

In private consumption, the BNB expects a growth of 3.7% and 4% respectively for the next two years against the background of the more modest 1.4% and 2.4% according to the EC's forecast. On the other hand, the BNB expects a much more modest growth in government spending of 1% and 2.1%, while the EC bets on growth of as much as 5.2% and 5.1% for 2024 and 2025. In its forecast, the Ministry of Finance does not breaks down private and public consumption, but overall both the BNB and the Ministry forecast a more stable growth of this component of GDP compared to the Commission, with the BNB betting that the factors behind this are the rise in real incomes (especially due to labor shortages as a result demographic trends), increased social transfers, higher health care costs and higher public sector wages.

However, the three forecasts are more unanimous on net exports, betting on a negative contribution to growth from this component. The forecast of the BNB predicts that exports will grow by 4.4% and 3.8% respectively in the next two years, while the Ministry of Finance bets on 4% and 4.1%, and the EC - on 4% and 2.6%. In parallel, all three institutions forecast stronger growth in imports - 6.2% and 5.4% according to the BNB, 6% and 5.8% according to the Ministry of Finance and 5.2% and 3.4% according to the EC. According to the BNB, the growth in exports will be largely due to the lowered base - the bank's forecast for 2023 foresees a contraction - as well as the fact that large-scale repair work will no longer be available at some of the largest energy and metallurgical enterprises in the country. The BNB also expects the negative shocks in external demand, caused mainly by the conflict in Ukraine and the general rise in interest rates, to be concentrated mainly in 2023, which will also allow for a sharp recovery of exports next year. However, even higher imports are projected over the two years, due to projected high levels of private consumption and investment, which will lead to more imports of both consumer goods and machinery and equipment.

Traditionally, macroeconomic forecasts also describe risks for their implementation and alternative scenarios, with the BNB and the MoF paying attention to the factors that could specifically negatively affect the Bulgarian economy. Both forecasts were published after the start of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, but their baseline scenarios do not predict major upheaval along these lines. However, both the MoF and the BNB take into account the negative shocks that the conflict could cause, as well as other, not so recent risks arising from the war in Ukraine and higher interest rates.

The Treasury foresees an alternative scenario where, due to the uncertain international environment, the prices of oil, precious metals and food products are higher in 2024 and 2025 than the assumptions of the main forecast. This would further increase price levels, with which real household incomes would decrease and with them consumption. The ECB would be forced to raise interest rates to respond to price pressures, so the MoF also foresees an increase in EURIBOR compared to the baseline scenario. This, in turn, will make lending more expensive, which will further reduce both consumption and investment activity. Against the background of the above, the world economy would grow more slowly, which would reduce the demand for Bulgarian export goods and services, but this would be largely offset by lower imports, as a result of weaker household consumption. Under the specific assumptions, the MoF foresees GDP for 2024 and 2025 to be half a percentage point lower compared to its base forecast, and HIPC inflation to be 1.3 and 1.1 per cent, respectively higher. It is interesting to note that scenarios of a faster contraction in inflation and the potential effects on economic decisions and the fiscal have not been considered - and the sharp decline in the prices of oil and key agricultural commodities in the last month indicate that such a development is not out of the question.

The approach of the BNB is slightly different, as here the possible deviations from the base forecast are presented in the form of fan-shaped graphs, allowing for the possibility of a positive development of the forecasted indicators. For example, the BNB notes a scenario in which incomes grow more than expected, and the low propensity to save remains, with which consumption and GDP grow further. In general, the BNB takes into account the same external risks that the Ministry of Finance describes, but also mentions the possibility of the slow and incomplete implementation of the projects under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan in the next two years, which could reduce the growth in investments. At 60% probability, the fan charts report a possible range for 2023 GDP growth of 0.7% to 2.9%, while year-end inflation for 2023 could range from 4.4% to 7.9%.

02.01.2024

EUROSTAT: BULGARIA AND ROMANIA WITH THE LOWEST LEVELS OF VACANCIES IN THE EU

The European Union job vacancy rate was 2.6% in the third quarter of 2023, down from 2.7% in the previous three months and from 2.9% in the same period in 2022. This is shown by the data published by Eurostat.

In the period July-September 2023, the Member States with the lowest vacancy rate were Bulgaria and Romania (both with 0.8), Spain and Poland (both with 0.9%), Slovakia (1, 1%) and Ireland (1.2%), while the member states with the highest vacancy rates are Belgium (4.7%), the Netherlands (4.5%), Austria (4.2%) and Germany (4.1%).

In the Eurozone, the job vacancy rate was 2.9% in the third quarter of 2023, down from 3% in the previous three months and from 3.1% in the same period in 2022.

Compared to the third quarter of 2022, the level of job vacancies increased in five EU Member States: Cyprus (0.7 percentage points), Greece (0.5 percentage points), Croatia (0.4 percentage points ), Lithuania and Malta (both by 0.1 percentage points), remained stable in four and decreased in 18 EU member states.

The most serious decline is in the Czech Republic (minus one percentage point), Luxembourg (minus 0.9 percentage points), Denmark and Austria (both with minus 0.8 percentage points) and Finland (minus 0.7 percentage points).

By sector of activity, in Romania the vacancy rate was 0.8% in industry and construction, respectively 0.8% in services, in the third quarter of 2023. At the European Union level, the vacancy rate was 2, 3% in industry and construction, respectively 2.9% in services.

29.12.2023

HOW MANY DAYS WILL WE REST IN 2024

With the advent of the new 2024, it is important to get acquainted with the official weekends that will determine our work schedule and give us the opportunity to relax and enjoy the moments with our loved ones.

During this period, a total of 11 days were declared public holidays and non -working days, which affect all spheres of society.

Official weekends not only provide relaxation and opportunity to charge energy, but also connect people to their roots, cultural values and historical heritages. They are a time for community and marking what makes Bulgaria unique and delightful. Official weekends in Bulgaria are not just days without work. They carry with them deeply cultural, historical and social importance.

These days, not only provide the opportunity for deserved relaxation, but also serve as a time to mark key events that form and determine Bulgarian identity.

The official weekends in Bulgaria in 2024 are:

January 1, 2024 - New Year:

The New Year begins with joy and expectations for the upcoming 12 months. This day is a great opportunity to spend time with your loved ones and make plans for the coming months.

March 3 - the day of the Liberation of Bulgaria from Ottoman slavery:

The holiday notes the historical liberation of Bulgaria from Ottoman rule. This day is suitable for visiting historical places and respect for national history.

May 5, 2024 - Easter:

The Christian world celebrates Easter - a holiday of the Resurrection of Christ. This is a time for love, traditions and sharing joy with the family.

May 1 - Labor Day and International Workers' Solidarity:

The holiday is dedicated to the work and achievements of workers. Usually this day is associated with events dedicated to workers' rights and their contribution to society.

May 6 - St. George, Day of Courage and the Bulgarian Army:

St. George's Day is related to the Bulgarian military tradition and the courage of our people. This day is suitable for relaxation and respect for military merit.

May 24 - The Day of Bulgarian Enlightenment and Culture and Slavic Literacy:

The holiday celebrates the world values of education and Bulgarian culture. This day is suitable for visiting cultural events and activities.

September 6 - the Union of Bulgaria:

The Union of Bulgaria is an excellent occasion to relax and take advantage of your free time, while recalling the important moments in the history of the country.

September 22 - Independence Day of Bulgaria:

This day was declared an official holiday in honor of the country's independence. Events and festive events enrich the cultural calendar during this period.

24, 25, 26 December - Christmas:

Christmas days provide the opportunity for family gatherings, gifts and joyful moments. This period is a time for special memories and love.

With a total of 11 official weekends in 2024, workers have the opportunity to combine their work with quality time for relaxation and rest in the love of their loved ones. Plan your free time carefully to create unforgettable memories and to energize for upcoming challenges.

29.12.2023

UNEMPLOYMENT IN TWO OF THE NORTHWESTERN DISTRICTS - MONTANA AND VRATSA - WAS UNCHANGED IN NOVEMBER, AND IN THE THIRD - VIDIN, IT SLIGHTLY DECREASED

In November, unemployment in the Vidin district decreased from 15.4 to 15.1 percent compared to the end of October, in the Montana district it remained at 12.7 percent, and in the Vratsa district it remained at 10.7 percent, reported The Montana Regional Employment Office.

The lowest level of unemployment in November was reported in the municipalities of Vratsa - 4.6 percent, Montana - 4.6 percent, Mezdra - 5.3 percent, Vidin - 7.3 percent, Kozloduy - 8.9 percent hundred etc. The municipalities with the highest unemployment rate are Dimovo - 65.8 percent, Makresh - 64.3 percent, Ruzhintsi - 45.8 percent, Yakimovo - 37.0 percent, Hairedin - 34.7 percent, Chuprene – 31.6 percent, Borovan – 30.1 percent, etc.

The number of unemployed people who started work in the three districts of Montana, Vratsa and Vidin in November was 1,229, which is an increase of 32.6 percent compared to October. Most of them found a new job in the state administration - 38.2%, followed by manufacturing industry - 11.3%, trade - 7.6%, health care - 7.2%, etc.

The Montana Regional Employment Office reported that in the past month in the three Northwest districts, the occupations most in demand by businesses were tailors, ironers, machine operators, general laborers, human care personnel, installers, sales consultants, electricians, welders, doctors and nurses, cooks and kitchen workers, waiters.