13.12.2021
REGIONAL PROFILES 2021: DEVELOPMENT DURING A PANDEMIC
For the last year, the Institute for Market Economics has been presenting "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development" - the only almanac of its kind on regional development in Bulgaria. The study is based on 66 indicators, which are evaluated by the economic and social community in the 28 regions of the country.
Economic development
The regional map of economic development in Bulgaria continues to be dominated by large economic centers. In 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Sofia (capital) will reach over BGN 51 billion, which is close to 43% of the economy of the country. Outside the capital in Southern Bulgaria, the regions of Plovdiv (BGN 9.7 billion), Burgas (BGN 5.5 billion) and Stara Zagora (BGN 5.1 billion) appear. In the north it occupies a leading position Varna (BGN 7.7 billion), followed by Ruse (BGN 2.8 billion) and Veliko Tarnovo (BGN 2.6 billion). The small scale of the economic centers in Northern Bulgaria - with the exception of Varna, as well as the weaker connection between the two countries and the country.
The total value added per person from the population of the region is over 33 thousand. BGN in Sofia (capital) up to 7 thousand BGN in Silistra. Sofia's economy is heavily dominated by services, which account for nearly 87% of the value added. The capital has run over twice as many major economic centers - Varna, Stapa Zagopa and Plovdiv. In the second place in the country comes the region of Sofia, which includes the industry in the immediate periphery of the big capital city, but also in the country. In the region of Sofia, the industry plays a significant role in the regions of Stapa Zagopa, Bpaca and Gabpovo. The total economy is over 10% of the added value in the regions of Silistra, Vratsa, Montana, Razgrad, Dobrich, Targovishte, Shumen and Yambol. We can see that these are relatively poorer areas, located mainly in the northern part of the country.
The pandemic is breaking the positive dynamics on the market in Bulgaria. After for the first time in the recent history of the country the employment rate of the population aged 15-64 exceeded the limit of 70% (2019), in 2020 there was a decline in employment to 68.5%, with negative processes covering. Due to the pandemic, however, the great differences on the market are still being preserved. While large economic centers account for employment rates of around 70% or more, the poorer are far behind. All five areas with an occupancy rate of less than 60% are located north of the mountain range. The regions of Varna, Ruse and Veliko Tarnovo are the best in terms of employment in Northern Bulgaria. It is necessary to take into account the very strong representation in the Sofia district, which for the second time last year has overtaken the capital. The sustainable indicators of the labor market in Sofia district are supported by the very good development of the industry in the wide periphery of the capital, as well as by the stability of large companies in Srednogorie, which successfully pass the initial shock of the pandemic and keep their jobs.
Due to the negative effect of the pandemic on the current market, some positive developments in 2021 will be reported. In 2021, the average monthly salary in the country exceeded BGN 1,500, and the rate of adjustment is over 10% on an annual basis. At the regional level, the average annual salary varies from over BGN 2,000 in Sofia (capital) to about BGN 1,000 in the regions such as Blagoevgrad and Kyustendil. At the same time, he is observing and recovering on the market, so that the unemployed is gradually starting to return to the field. The continuing waves of coponavipyca and the resulting restrictive measures for social life and economic activity, however, are underway.
The human capital and the profile of the labor force will be key to the process of recovery and the continuing transformation of the Bulgarian nation. Nearly 30% of the workforce (24-64 years) has higher education, and in recent years this share has increased. The categorical leader is Sofia (capital), in which 56.8% of the workforce is highly educated. The next place is Pyce (31.2%) and Beliko Tupnovo (29.7%), which traditionally represents a strong indicator. In almost half of the regions in the country, the share of people with basic and lower education in the labor force is greater than the share of the work of the university. The share of the population with the main and lower education in the districts of Targovishte, Sliven, Kardzhali, Silistra, Pazgrad, Montana and Shumen remains high.
In 2021, despite the pandemic wave, the pandemic is focused on the recovery of the economic pact and the change of the region. Technological and technical transformation of the industry, incl. The changes in the supply chain, as well as the introduction of digital services, will continue to be the leading factors for local development. The big challenge ahead of time will be investment, which is still being pushed back by unscrupulous economics and politics. The strategic planning of the municipalities for the period 2021-2027, as well as the efforts of the major economic centers to attract investors and develop industrial areas, can play a positive role and support the transformation of the economy. In these efforts, the communities need support and, most of all, real steps for financial decentralization.
Social development
In the last decade, the population of 26 regions in the country is declining. Only in Sofia (capital) and in Kardzhali there is a reverse trend. In recent years, the presentation of Kardzhali has been very strong, as almost all populated places in the region are marked by the influx of people. The maritime districts of Varna and Burgas report a slight decline, but maintain a steadily positive mechanical balance and have the potential to turn the demographics around. Until the onset of the pandemic, it was the mechanical force that distinguished the strong economic centers, which managed to attract young, active and active people. In 2020, however, there will be a change caused by the pandemic and the imposed restrictive measures. On the one hand, many Bulgarians are coming from abroad, and on the other hand, there is a migration of the population from the big cities to the small ones.
In 2020, all major cities, including Sofia, Plovdiv and Bapna, will report a negative mechanical impact, i.e. in them there is an outflow of population. At the same time, a total of 205 municipalities are celebrating a positive mechanical situation, which is unprecedented in the new history of the country. During the year of the pandemic, the regional centers are losing their population, while the peripheral communities are registering the flow of people. Despite this adjustment due to the pandemic and restrictive measures, long demographic trends tend to remain unchanged, with strong economic centers in the best position to attract young and active people.
The situation is also severely affected by the onset of the pandemic, as in large periods of time during the last two years of the school year. Due to the fact that the general balance of the educational imbalances in the country is preserved. The highest results of the state criminal exams in Bulgarian language and literature in 2021 are marked in the capital Sofia (4.58), Smolyan (4.44) and Varna (4.44). In the region of Sofia (capital) and Smolyan for the past year there has been a very low share of weak estimates. In total, ten regions are registered with the results of the state exams in Bulgarian language and literature under the border of 4.00. The place also has a high share (over 10%) in the low grades, which speaks of serious challenges to the quality of the school system.
The pandemic brings to the forefront the health and the ability of the health system to respond to emergencies. Patients who fight in hospital beds and access to medicine are among the most important for the quality of life in the place. The regional differences in the field of health care are especially visible when the population has access to medicine. While in some areas - Pleven, Sofia (capital), Plovdiv and Varna, one doctor cares for less than 200 people per half of the population in half of the region. On a similar scale and differences in the attitude of medical professionals. The number of hospital beds also varies from close to 10 beds per 1,000 people in the Pleven region to less than 3 beds per 1,000 people in the districts of Pernik, Dobrich and Shumen.
In recent years, there has been a decline in the number of registered crimes committed against the person and community in the country. The pandemic additionally reflects the reduction in the value of this indicator. In 2020, less than 10 crimes were registered against individuals and people per 1,000 people of the population. Kardzhali and Smolyan remain the most significant areas with about 5 crimes against the person and property per 1000 people. In 2020, the growth rate was the highest in the Gabrovo region - over 76% of the registered crime rates during the year. The northwestern regions of Montana, Vratsa, and Vidin, as well as the Varna and Burgas, are characterized by the largest number of registered offenses.
The pandemic is seriously affecting the economy, as well as the social indicators of the regions in the country. There is a clear change in the demographics, which is due to the very high level of death, as well as due to the outflow of population from the great population. Areas such as health care, education and culture are severely affected and function in the face of extraordinary circumstances. Due to this, the great regional differences are preserved and continue to be clearly seen in the data.
The current edition of "Regional Profiles: Development Indicators" shows the real picture on the ground after the pandemic and again draws attention to the major challenges to development and convergence of opportunities across the country. The change in the social sphere in the regions depends on the economic rise, as well as on the empowerment and financial independence of the population.
MONTANA DISTRICT
Montana is among the areas with the lowest incomes and standard of living, which predetermines the high share of poverty in the area. Economic activity in the district is the largest in the country, but its growth is accompanied by both the most significant growth in employment and unemployment in the country, although their coefficients remain significantly less favorable than average. Investment activity in the district is relatively weak, but the absorption of European funds is relatively high. Montana has the lowest share of highways and first-class roads. The average level of local taxes in the municipalities of the district is the second lowest in the country. The self-assessments of local administrations for the development of e-government continue to lag behind.
The continuing aging of the country's population is particularly evident in the Montana region. The results of the students are extremely low and in 2021 the shares of the second-year students and those who dropped out of primary and secondary education are decreasing. Access to doctors in the area is relatively high. The workload of criminal judges in the district is significantly lower than the national average, which also affects the speed of justice. In 2020, Montana is the area with the most registered crimes. The main reasons for good performance in the environment are the low volume of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, as well as that of municipal waste and its management. Cultural life in the Montana area is low.
Source: Institute for Market Economics
