30.04.2024

WHAT ARE THE PERSONNEL THAT WILL BE MOST SOUGHT AFTER IN THE COMING YEARS

The data on what personnel vocational education prepares showed (we wrote about it) that in this academic year the intake of auto technicians and restaurateurs is the largest, and locksmiths and welders are relatively few.

It is interesting to see how vocational education corresponds to the demand in the labor market, according to an analysis by the Institute for Market Economy. The Employment Agency's workforce needs survey shows short-term and long-term needs for personnel, including those with professional qualifications.

Employers say they plan to hire nearly 270,000 workers in the next 12 months. Among those with vocational education, the highest needs are for machine operators (14.8 thousand), tailors (8.7 thousand), cooks (8.6 thousand) and builders (8.3 thousand). A comparison with the data for vocational education admissions in 2023/2024 shows that there will again be large structural gaps between labor demand and supply. Of the 20 occupations with the greatest shortage for next year, there are no admissions to vocational education at all for three (driver of a public transport vehicle, carer and cashier). In other 12 professions (e.g. locksmith, social assistant, welder) the intake is relatively low - less than 100 people in the country, or less than 0.3% of the total intake. That is, in 15 of the 20 professions with the highest expected demand, the vocational education system currently prepares few or no personnel, the Institute for Market Economy points out.

Among the 20 professions, the proportion of learners over those in demand is only in the preparation of cooks and electricians - they are respectively 3.7% and 2.4% of learners and 3.2% and 1.1% of the market's personnel needs of labor.

The comparison of those who have started their professional education and the long-term needs (in the next 3-5 years), when the newly admitted young people this year will leave the school system and look for work, gives an even better idea of the correspondence between education and the labor market. Obviously, the intake in professions related to informatics (mainly programmers), in technology (technicians of transport equipment and computer systems, electricians) and in personal services (restaurateurs, cooks, hairdressers) is inflated.

According to economists, the high intake for these professions is due to various reasons. In recent years, jobs in informatics have increased sharply, although the share of those employed with acquired professional qualifications is relatively low (below 2%), and the rapid hiring of personnel in this economic activity has subsided. There remains the broader question of whether high school programmers who have opted out of university will be able to develop and add value in the global market for this type of knowledge and skills in the long term. The widespread reception of restaurateurs and chefs is more of a historical nature, but unlike that of agricultural professions, which has been decreasing in recent years, it continues to be relatively high.

The needs for professionals in business management and administration (accountants, economists), in production (industrial technicians, bakers, tailors), in health care (nurses, health assistants, opticians and orthopedic technicians) are much greater than the intake.

These data once again show that there is a gap between vocational education and the needs of the labor market. At the same time, the realization of graduates is not tracked, which in practice prevents the fulfillment of the main goal of vocational education, namely to be a direct link between the educational system and the labor market.

The regional cross-section is also important, especially given that labor mobility in Bulgaria is relatively low. The need for universal application of dual education makes it mandatory, concludes the Institute for Market Economy.