27.04.2023

BARDAROV: IN 2050, THE ROMA WILL BE 1.1-1.2 MILLION OUT OF A TOTAL POPULATION OF ABOUT 5 MILLION IN THE COUNTRY

The battle in the 21st century will not be for resources, such as food, but for an active population.

This is what Prof. Dr. Georgi Bardarov, specialist in demography, ethno-political conflicts, geography of population and settlements, geodemography and geo-urban studies, says for BTA. He is a teacher and deputy dean at the Faculty of Geology and Geography of Sofia University.

Societies, not only in Bulgaria, are aging rapidly and very soon there will be a fierce battle for the attraction of human resources all over the world, says Bardarov. According to him, there is no way to deny that the demographic crisis in our country is very serious, but it is not hopeless and it is impossible to make predictions in which year the last Bulgarian will disappear. His position is that apocalyptic calculations should not be made, because demographically things can quickly turn around, albeit with a delayed effect.

"For example, in 1989 there were forecasts that by the year 2000, Bulgaria would have a population of between 9.5 and 10 million people, and we were under 8 million", pointed out Bardarov.

According to him, things are always reversible, both in a negative and in a positive direction, the question is what the state policy will be.

According to him, the big problem for our country is that emphasis is placed on things that cannot be influenced and therefore there are no results. In our country, when we talk about demography, the focus is mainly on the birth rate, but this is a wrong approach, Burdarov believes. He recalled that this problem applies to the entire developed world, it is dictated by objective factors and will not change in the foreseeable future. The average number of children born to a woman of childbearing age in the EU is 1.5, in Bulgaria it is 1.56, i.e. we are above the average level for Europe, the expert pointed out. The lowest birth rate in Europe is in Italy - 7.8 per thousand, the highest - in Eire - 12.8 per thousand, Bulgaria has 8.9 per thousand and is again in the middle, added Bardarov.

A total demographic change is coming

There is a theory about the demographic transition - that it goes through four phases, the expert said. The latter has low and equal birth and death rates, zero natural growth, which at some point turns to negative natural growth, Bardarov explained.

According to him, the developed world is currently in this fourth phase, but other regions of the world will also gradually enter it. Burdarov's prediction is that in about 40-50 years what is currently happening in Europe will happen all over the world.

When asked what happens after the fourth phase, the expert explained that for now there is no continuation of the theory.

His personal opinion as a demographer is that there will be extremely critical birth rates and extremely high life expectancy.

"It is possible that this is the Earth's natural way to reach an optimal number of population and then naturally the number of people will go down," says Bardarov.

However, according to him, in any case, a total demographic change is coming. In fact, it is already happening, Bardarov added.

He develops his theory in his new monograph, Globalization and New Demographic Patterns of the 21st Century, where he states that there are three entirely new demographic patterns. These are very low birth rates, increasingly outdated societies and the third pattern – global population displacement. It's not that there were no migrations in the past, for example the Great Migration of Peoples, but the scale at the moment is radically different, Burdarov explained. And he specified that, according to him, in the 21st century humanity is entering a completely new world in terms of demography and identity.

Even in China, there is already a shortage of human resources, of an active population, the expert said. According to him, this has become a fact in an artificial way, because of the model for one child in a family, but there is also an aging of society.

It is clear that migration flows have recently been heading towards Europe, added Bardarov.

According to him, for the first time in the history of the world there is such a pronounced flow from south to north, although in principle it is more logical to be from north to south, due to natural conditions. In general, however, according to the scientist, many of the upcoming processes can only be guessed, because the world is changing and will be radically different with technology, with digital nomads, with the fact that you can work from anywhere on the planet.

People will look for nature, tranquility and infrastructure

In the very near future, people will look for the most acceptable living conditions from the point of view of nature first, ecology and tranquility second, and infrastructure related to raising children, Bardarov added. According to him, societies that invest in these factors will attract an active population.

In our country, many are shocked when it is said that we should attract people of active age - educated and qualified, regardless of where, the expert added.

His position is the opposite, but he points out as a problem that we do not have the necessary infrastructure. Territories like Northwestern Bulgaria, with staggering rates of depopulation, cannot remain empty, Bardarov pointed out.

He also added that 42 percent of the population in our country in 2030 will live in the six largest cities in the country. The expert dismissed the grumbling against urbanization, pointing out that it is a global process.

The urban population in the world was 3 percent in the 19th century, and now it is 54-55 percent and will soon be 70 percent, Bardarov explained.

For him, the main problem is the assumption of uneven distribution, not that people go to the cities. As a good example, he gave Germany with its adequate regional policy, which prevents territories from being depopulated. In Bulgaria, the first thing that the state can and should do is to build social and road infrastructure, Bardarov explained.

He pointed out that there is no way to attract young families to the North-West if the nearest hospital is at least 60 kilometers away, there are no kindergartens, and the roads are dangerous.

There is no way for young people to go at the moment, so the state must first provide the necessary infrastructure, and then think about how to stimulate business in order to create jobs, the expert said.

He recommends a change in two things - in the administrative-territorial division of the country and in the pension system. Apart from the North-West, the Strandzha-Sakar region is also depopulated, added the expert. There are also serious demographic problems in in the region of Kyustendil, Breznik and Tran.

A major factor in reversing negative trends is education

When asked whether there could be a reversal of the negative trends, the expert indicated that, for him, the main factor for this is education.

It is a fact that the more educated a person is, the lower his reproductive attitudes are, explained Bardarov.

According to him, the state cannot help to raise the birth rate, but it can take care of the increase of the young, active, educated population - to stay in our country, work, live and give birth to children here, and not in other countries. Our education must be adequate to the modern world, the expert pointed out. According to him, many quality people work in our educational system, but it simply does not correspond to the current times.

As an example, he gives his work at the university, where he used to give knowledge and information to students, but today they rely on their phones for that. "I can't give them information, I have to tell them how to interpret it, analyze it, how to use it," the teacher pointed out.

There is a seven-step program for the demographic restart of Bulgaria and it requires change in all spheres, Burdarov also said. Among the steps is a proactive migration policy, which includes three things. The first is to create conditions for these young people who are currently in Bulgaria to want to live in Bulgaria, Burdarov explained. As a second necessity, he pointed out to actively work with the Bulgarians who are abroad, especially with the diasporas in Ukraine and Bessarabia. The third point is the attraction of migrants from third countries, Bardarov added. And he emphasized that it doesn't matter where people come from, the important thing is that they are educated and qualified and at an active age.

In addition to the migrant policy of the country, Bardarov also touches on the issue of the Roma in our country and the need for their integration.

No one wants to talk about it because the issue is very difficult and even politically bound, the expert pointed out.

There are about 800,000 Roma at the moment, they will be and will live in this territory, so if we don't start working with them today, tomorrow we will have problems, and not just unsolved, but unsolvable problems, said Bardarov.

He recalled that out of 800,000 Roma, 0.5 percent have higher education, and 9 percent on average. This means that over 90 percent of them have less than a high school education, in a world where computer literacy is required for even the most basic of jobs.

And he added that according to forecast data, in 2050, this group will be 1.1-1.2 million people out of the country's total population of about 5 million. If then the Roma have the same educational structure, it means 1 million people inactive on the labor market, Bardarov emphasized.

He himself worked on a project in Straldzha, which integrated Roma in school.

In one year, we achieved a real increase in school attendance by 40 percent of the children, Bardarov pointed out.

And he clarified that the project is not based on his know-how, but an adaptation of a foreign model. It is not a panacea, but it is important that there are working mechanisms, as well as communities among the Roma who are willing to integrate and educate themselves, the expert explained.

And he summarized that the most important thing is to work, and not to raise one's hands and only grumble that nothing is happening.