24.04.2023

THE LABOR MARKET IN BULGARIA IS TIGHT AND UNCERTAIN IN THE COMING MONTHS

The labor market in Bulgaria in the coming months until autumn will be tight and uncertain. This is indicated by the results of the latest forecast survey of the Bulgarian Employment Confederation, which covers the period April - September 2023.

Employers across the country share the most modest hiring plans since the survey began in 2021.

A third (27%) of the 1,099 companies surveyed plan to increase their workforce, down 16% from the previous six months and down 19% from the same period last year.

36% of employers expect to maintain the number of their employees, and 19% predict to reduce the staff, which is 5% more compared to the previous researched period.

About a fifth of managers (18%) are unsure whether to keep or fire employees, with their share at zero over the past six months. Thus, the net employment rate - the difference between employers who plan to reduce the workforce and those who forecast to increase it - is +8%, or a decrease of 21 percentage points compared to the previous period studied and 32 percentage points less in compared to the same period last year.

Employers in Sofia typically share the most optimistic hiring plans for the period April 2023 - September 2023 with an employment rate of +72%, an increase of two percentage points compared to the previous six months. Companies in Plovdiv and Burgas predict modest team expansion, with +9% and +8% of employers in these regions planning to hire new employees, respectively. In Ruse and Varna, the employment rate registered a drop of two percentage points and is, respectively, +3% and +8% for the next six months.

In terms of the twelve industries included in the Bulgarian Employment Confederation study, the forecasts of the Hospitality and Restaurant and Construction sectors report the largest increase of five percentage points compared to the previous study period, with +10% and +9% respectively from employers plan to hire new employees. By two percentage points, the plans of employers in the "Public and social sector" are increasing, where the employment rate is +7%. Employers in the Information Technology and Outsourcing sectors, which had the most optimistic hiring plans in the previous survey period, reported more modest forecasts for April - September and employment rates of +25% and +9%, respectively. In the sectors "Wholesale and retail trade", "Transport, warehousing and communications" and "Agriculture, forestry and fisheries" the employment rate was +9%, +7% and +3% respectively, which represents a decrease of one percentage point compared to the previous six months.

The rate of hiring employees in the sector "Electricity, gas and water" is maintained (+4), the employment rate in the sectors "Manufacturing" and "Financial and insurance activities, real estate and business services" increases by one percentage point and reaches +11% and +7%, respectively, and the Extractive Industry sector is the only one that forecasts a negative employment rate for the period until September.

According to Nadya Vasileva, chairperson of Bulgarian Employment Confederation, the processes that must start immediately, in parallel with the change of the labor legislation to be adequate to reality, are related to the digitalization of labor processes.

"Those wishing to join the work process should retrain en masse according to the needs of employers, attract the passive groups of desperate people who are not looking for work, and implement a targeted import of people from abroad," commented the specialist.