03.11.2022
ROMANIA'S NATIONAL STRATEGY COMMISSION REVISES UP ITS 2022 ECONOMIC GROWTH ESTIMATE TO 4.6 PERCENT
Romania's National Strategy and Forecast Commission forecasts economic growth for this year of 4.6 percent - 1.1 percent above the summer forecast (+3.5 percent). On the other hand, the commission revised down its economic growth forecast for 2023 from 3.7% to 2.8%, the Romanian agency Agerpress reported, citing a report by the National Strategy and Forecast Commission.
The report attributed the improvement in this year's estimates to the fact that construction and services performed above expectations, contributing a combined 5% to the increase in gross domestic product and offsetting the negative effect of industry and agriculture (-0.9 percentage points).
Gross value added for the tertiary sector, which regains its status as a growth engine, is expected to grow by 7.7 percent, with a tendency to slow slightly in the second half of the year, while the construction sector is expected to grow by 6.1 percent due to an increase in activity in the second half of the year, states the KNSP in the autumn edition of its medium-term forecast for 2022 - 2026.
According to the Commission for National Strategy and Forecast, the negative contribution comes from industry, with a projected decline in gross value added of 1.2 percent, and the drought-hit agriculture sector, for which previous estimates were significantly revised down to a 12.8 percent decline.
The Commission for National Strategy and Forecast also notes that gross investment saw a slight recovery in the second quarter of 2022, a trend that will continue as the implementation of European Union-funded public investments gathers pace. However, the revision of gross capital formation growth was only a modest +0.6 percentage points to 4.3 percent, mainly due to unfavorable influences from the equipment component.
"According to the current forecast, domestic demand is considered as the engine of economic growth, and net exports have a zero contribution, as the dynamics of exports of goods and services (9.2%) are canceled out by imports of goods and services (8.2 per hundred)", it is also stated in the report of the Commission for National Strategy and Forecast.
